Author Topic: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins  (Read 2712 times)

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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #45 on: March 22, 2018, 02:26:22 am »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/politics/lamb-saccone-concession/index.html

Eight days after the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district, Republican candidate Rick Saccone has conceded to Democratic candidate Conor Lamb.
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Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #46 on: March 22, 2018, 11:54:35 am »
20+ point flip.

Ironbite-be nervous GOP.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #47 on: March 22, 2018, 02:29:39 pm »
20+ point flip.

Ironbite-be nervous GOP.

They were already plenty nervous straight from the initial reporting. Even if Saccone had won, it would have been just as close (in his favour rather than Lamb's), and that still would not have boded well for upcoming elections.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #48 on: March 28, 2018, 07:42:11 pm »
https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/extreme-gerrymandering-2018-midterm

The Democrats may need to win the House popular vote by 11 points (the highest margin since 1982) in 2018 to retake the House.

Granted, it's the Brennan Center, so take that with a grain of salt.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #49 on: March 28, 2018, 08:39:22 pm »
I don't know. Dems are very energized while Repubs aren't. People don't tend to vote when they feel things are good, and I think Alabama and Pennsylavania are good indicators of the direction the country is going.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #50 on: March 28, 2018, 09:09:48 pm »
I don't know. Dems are very energized while Repubs aren't. People don't tend to vote when they feel things are good, and I think Alabama and Pennsylavania are good indicators of the direction the country is going.

I'm not saying 11 points is unattainable.

Also, there are a lot of Republican voters who had it drilled into them that voting is a civic duty, and that attitude is less present in Democratic voters.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #51 on: March 28, 2018, 10:42:22 pm »
Special elections say otherwise.

Ironbite-they lost Alabama.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #52 on: March 28, 2018, 11:02:39 pm »
Special elections say otherwise.

Ironbite-they lost Alabama.

Alabama also had a freaking pedophile running for the Republicans.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #53 on: March 29, 2018, 01:08:44 am »
You have to understand this is difficult for Dpareja. If the Dems do as good as is projected, he can't go on about needing to follow Sanders' example and Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #54 on: March 29, 2018, 02:07:47 am »
You have to understand this is difficult for Dpareja. If the Dems do as good as is projected, he can't go on about needing to follow Sanders' example and Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

First: Current projected margin for Democrats, 6.8--not enough, if the Brennan Center's projections are correct.

Second: It's still not enough, because the Democrats can't use Congress's Art. 1, Sec. 4 power to redraw their own maps unless they have the Presidency, the House, and a supermajority in the Senate--which last they literally cannot get in this cycle. That means that the same problems that apply for the House in 2018 will apply in 2020 as well.

Third: A lot of Democrats are not, on many issues, that much better than the Republicans. Oh, when it costs them nothing to oppose them (House minority, Senate minority facing reconciliation or similar procedures), they'll do so. But consider the recent banking deregulation bill, where a third of Senate Democrats joined Republicans in voting to loosen regulation on banks with assets of up to $250 billion (which includes some really really big banks)--what's the use of electing Democrats who are, on many issues, going to pass the same policies that Republicans do? You see the same with foreign policy and military spending.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00052
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00053

Republicans are bad. Democrats who are Republican-lite are also bad.

And what you have to remember about the Tea Party is that it worked, insofar as it allowed Republicans to stymie the Democrats for six years and then put them in a position to roll back 15 Obama-era executive orders via the Congressional Review Act (requiring only a simple majority in the Senate), barring further executive changes to such policies and subjecting them to the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, not to mention ripping out the key component of the ACA (itself in origin a Richard Nixon and Heritage Foundation plan, of course) thanks to Roberts only finding the individual mandate constitutional under the Taxation Clause rather than the Commerce Clause.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Askold

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #55 on: March 29, 2018, 04:28:39 am »
Unless I'm horribly wrong the thing is that the most "energetic" GOP voters at the moment are the Trump-cult and extreme-right fanatics. That's why Nazis, child molesters and who knows what can get the GOP nomination. The others are tired of all this "winning" and having Trumpgrets.

Meanwhile, because Democrats are currently "losing" their side is more eager to vote to get back in the majority which helps them. They might even vote when their candidate isn't their favourite because at least it is better than the GOP candidate. ...Meanwhile when the GOP voters have to make a choice between "the other team" or "literally the charred bones of Hitler because the Neo-Nazis found them and got them nominated when no one else in the GOP bothered to show up and vote" then they might as well decide to stay home because it is harder for them to justify voting for the GOP candidate.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #56 on: April 24, 2018, 08:08:38 pm »
Remember: the special election to fill the House seat vacated by Rep. Trent Franks, AZ-8, is today with polls closing shortly (or already).

RCP has Republican candidate Debbie Lesko with an 8 point lead over Democratic candidate Hiral Vyas Tipirneni, but the Cook PVI for AZ-8 is R+13.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #57 on: April 24, 2018, 08:42:23 pm »
Trump won that district by 21 points btw.

Ironbite-that's not something the GOP wanted to see.

Offline Cloud3514

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #58 on: April 25, 2018, 01:47:37 am »
Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren is facing an opponent who put up an ad that photoshopped a Native American headdress on her head while calling himself a "real Indian" because he is of Indian descent.

Where the fuck did this whole "Pocahontas" thing even come from in the first place?
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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #59 on: April 25, 2018, 01:48:54 am »
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.
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