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Offline rookie

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Sandy and the Elections
« on: October 26, 2012, 10:14:49 am »
So by this time everyone in America, and probably our European and Australian friends too, are aware of Hurricane Sandy's impending doom on the Eastern Seaboard, from the mid Atlantic through New England. From the projected landfall, that is a pretty densely populated area that will get wet starting Sunday evening. I hope emergency crews can move swiftly restoring power and clearing roads. They seem to do pretty OK with impending doom (surprise doom, not so much though), but will one week be enough?

I was wondering what your thoughts were about how a major tropical storm hitting a densely populated, strongly liberal part of the country will effect the elections in 11 days. Or rather 7 or 8 days if you count from projected landfall through November 6th. How will this effect he elections? What should Obama and Romney do or not do? I'm curious. I can't remember a natural disaster like this happening so close to a national election. And with political animosity the way it is right now, Hurricane Sandy is about to be the last political football this cycle. Predictions on spin?
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Offline Material Defender

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 11:37:54 am »
"God is destroying the sinful liberals!"-Says the Calvinist Preacher

I think if things can't get in voting order easily, we may see popular vote drop off in these states. If they are close, well... could swing them the wrong way. Media spin? I think MSN will say Obama's handling (If it becomes federal issue, if not already) was heroic and Faux will think he did too little. I doubt it'll swing voters much. It's a natural disaster. Excepting crazies that believe in the above, no ones going to say it's an endorsement either way. Hopefully.

Really would not look forward to a Romney Presidency because he's just going to be a puppet or a big business supporter.
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Offline SimSim

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 03:52:42 pm »
I really doubt the storm will have any effect on the election, unless your normal polling place gets flooded or something similar. The states and federal government are getting ready for it. I don't really see what they can fault Obama with, save for a Katrina style fuckup.
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Offline CaseAgainstFaith

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2012, 04:07:46 pm »
Quote from: SimSim on October 26, 2012, 03:52:42 pm
I really doubt the storm will have any effect on the election, unless your normal polling place gets flooded or something similar. The states and federal government are getting ready for it. I don't really see what they can fault Obama with, save for a Katrina style fuckup.

The one thing you are forgetting is electricity.  Specifically if it goes the track that current forecasters are talking about Virgina and Pennsylvania use electronic voting throughout most of those two states.  So if Sandy knocks out a lot of power you have that to contend with.  Let alone lets not forget that when Irene hit it took a little over a week or more to get power restored to everyone.
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Offline KZN02

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2012, 05:11:52 pm »
Well, people can vote early by mail, right?
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Offline Veras

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2012, 05:12:29 pm »
Well, according to this map, it isn't going to affect all parts of the states it hits equally.



Virginia is definitely a swing state, and some analysts have Pennsylvania as one as well.  According to that projection, Sandy would hit northern Virginia and eastern Pennsylvania, which are the most Democratic parts of those states.  If there is damage serious enough to disrupt voting/affect turnout (and I have no idea how likely that is) it would almost certainly hurt Obama and the Democrats' chances of winning there.  This is particularly true given that virtually any condition that lowers turnout affects Democratic voters more than Republican voters.
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Offline rookie

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2012, 07:19:59 pm »
What Veras said plus if you look at where the bulk of the storm surge (which causes all kinds of problems from floods to power outages) is going to be. Since Veras posted the map, you can see the northeast area (who bears the brunt of it) is going to be New York City. And from what I've seen, the system isn't weakening at all. That means a category 1 hurricane is going to slam into New Jersey. I don't know when that happened before. As bad as Irene was, that was downgraded to a tropical storm before it took it's cruise up the Chesapeake. 

Oh, and Veras, that cone from Virginia through Pennsylvania is a composite of the spaghetti models. Somewhere in there, not from here to there.
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Offline SimSim

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2012, 08:58:49 pm »
Quote from: CaseAgainstFaith on October 26, 2012, 04:07:46 pm
Quote from: SimSim on October 26, 2012, 03:52:42 pm
I really doubt the storm will have any effect on the election, unless your normal polling place gets flooded or something similar. The states and federal government are getting ready for it. I don't really see what they can fault Obama with, save for a Katrina style fuckup.

The one thing you are forgetting is electricity.  Specifically if it goes the track that current forecasters are talking about Virgina and Pennsylvania use electronic voting throughout most of those two states.  So if Sandy knocks out a lot of power you have that to contend with.  Let alone lets not forget that when Irene hit it took a little over a week or more to get power restored to everyone.
Actually no, I didn't forget about electricty. I should have been more clear, I meant all reasons caused by the storm with the something similar comment to flooding. That said, there will be about a week to get power restored. All the power companies in the area are getting ready for the storm. I'm sure with the election nearing, polling places will be a priority to have power restored. Plus I'd be very very surprised if the government doesn't have plans in place in case of a natural disaster disrupting an election.
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Offline VirtualStranger

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2012, 09:15:46 pm »


I live in Delaware, right below the canal.

Oh god oh god oh god I'm gonna die.
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Offline Material Defender

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2012, 09:19:01 pm »
Sometimes living in Kansas has its perks.
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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2012, 09:29:14 pm »
...Oh shit. I'm screwed. I live right in the middle of New York.
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Offline SimSim

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2012, 09:41:37 pm »
Quote from: VirtualStranger on October 26, 2012, 09:15:46 pm


I live in Delaware, right below the canal.

Oh god oh god oh god I'm gonna die.
Lucky you, living in Slower Lower.

<beats a hasty retreat>
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Offline erictheblue

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2012, 09:51:24 pm »
I'm supposed to go to Richmond Monday to be sworn into the Bar. I got an e-mail this afternoon that the ceremony may have to be postponed because of the storm.
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Offline VirtualStranger

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2012, 09:53:03 pm »
JESUS CHRIST

« Last Edit: October 26, 2012, 10:16:35 pm by VirtualStranger »
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Offline cheese007

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Re: Sandy and the Elections
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2012, 10:23:35 pm »
Well, there's your October surprise....
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