I think mostly when there's a break between Tea Party and moderate republicans we'll see what happens.
There IS a break, but from what I've seen both sides are blind to it.
From the moderate end: They know people like the ones in the Tea Party in real life, and refuse to believe that people like them are in charge of their party right now (evidence be damned), because most of them are still under the impression that the Tea Party is just a conservative revival, not a reactionary one. For examplem they still think Reagan would be supported by the Tea Party.
From the Tea Party end: The lack of criticism from their own party and endorsement of the movement from major players for the Republican team gives the false impression that all conservatives share their extreme views. For example, they think Reagan would have supported their views.
Until one side or the other realizes that they're closer together than they are to liberals but not in total agreement, this weird quasi-schism is just going to keep going.