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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by dpareja on Today at 07:25:51 pm »
How do you figure Texas will go Blue in the presidential race?

Because Texas is already an outlier for Republican states in terms of urbanization.

Romney and Cruz both won Texas by about 16 points in 2012. Cornyn (a two-term incumbent) won by 27 points in 2014 (a Republican wave year, remember). Trump won Texas by about 9 points. 538's forecasted vote shares for Cruz and O'Rourke puts Cruz 5 points up (Classic model and Deluxe model; 5.5 points up in Lite). That's a trajectory that can make Texas into a swing state in 2020.
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by Id82 on Today at 06:03:32 pm »
How do you figure Texas will go Blue in the presidential race?
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by dpareja on Today at 05:11:16 pm »
The Dems' chances of retaking the Senate are a lot better than they have any right to be. There's a good chance they hold the Republicans to the status quo--which would still be horrific, but better than losing seats.

In 2020, meanwhile, there are quite a few seats that could flip:

Alabama: To R.
Colorado: To D.
Iowa: To D.
Kentucky: To D. (Not because the Democrats should be winning Kentucky, but because Mitch McConnell is ridiculously unpopular.)
Maine: To D. (Probably over anger at Collins' vote for Kavanaugh.)
North Carolina: To D.
Texas: To D. (Yes; it's very possible that it will go Democratic in the Presidential race, which could bring the Senate seat with it.)
West Virginia: To D.

I don't think all of those will flip (in fact, I think the most likely is Alabama), but I'd say that as long as the Democrats can hold the Republicans to no net gain this year (which is very possible) they have a very good chance at retaking the Senate in 2020.
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by Id82 on Today at 04:29:35 pm »
The chances of retaking the Senate have been pretty low for the Dems. I'm not too surprised by that, and their chances will be better in 2020, but I don't really forsee them taking the Senate back until 2022 honestly. I just want the dems to take back the house and prevent the Republicans from ruining healthcare and giving more handouts to the wealthy.
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by dpareja on Today at 04:18:54 pm »
The polls weren't wrong, particularly in the critical Rust Belt states. Trump performed at the upper edge of the margin of error. That he'd do that was around a 30% chance.

What I'm really worried about is the Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate. If they don't do that, Extreme Makeover: Judiciary Edition gets renewed for another two years, and voting rights will go right in the shitter (even more), making it even harder for Democrats to take back legislative bodies, since those voter suppression tactics always disproportionately target Democratic demographics.
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by Id82 on Today at 03:56:35 pm »
Yeah there's just a lot of negative media especially on the left MSNBC has a bit from morning Joe where they're saying that the blue wave will not be as big as expected, and that dems might not win the house by much. (I just want them to win the house I don't care if they win it by 1 or 30) So it's hard to not feel negative and discouraged.
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by Eiki-mun on Today at 03:45:01 pm »
538 was not "wrong". They gave Trump a 30% chance to won the Electoral College based on their data, which is not a small chance. Flip a coin, get heads twice - that's *less* likely than the odds they gave Trump to win. He managed that 30% chance, which is not 538 getting it "wrong", it just means that Trump managed to beat the odds.

Remember: 538 doesn't deal in predictions, they deal in probabilities. And an 86% chance to take the House is a hell of a lot better than the 70% chance Clinton had (in fact, roughly *twice* as good.)
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Politics and Government / Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Last post by Id82 on Today at 03:38:08 pm »
I'm feeling worried. Were pretty much two weeks from the mid terms and enthusiasm for Democrats seems to have slowed. Meanwhile Trump is going out to rallies and spreading fear and lies about the opposing party and stirring up his base who seem to have a new fire under them after the whole Kavannaugh debacle while the excitement for the democrats has slowed. 538 puts dems ahead at 8.6 points for the house at the moment which is a fairly good lead, but they were wrong last election so it's hard to trust data. (Even though they were technically right the Democrats won by three million more votes, they just didn't win where it counted.)
I just need some good news.
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Politics and Government / Re: Mr. Trump Goes to Washington
« Last post by Id82 on Today at 10:36:59 am »
Then I'm gonna use my magic words to stop those spooky magic words from cursing Mcrapey in the supreme court. That will learn them that their magic words have no place here.
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Preaching and Worship / Another question for Niam
« Last post by Jacob Harrison on Today at 08:24:54 am »
In Parallel Hero, what is King Michael’s relation to King Jaime. Is he his brother?
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