Author Topic: Things just got real in Ukraine  (Read 37706 times)

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Offline dpareja

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2014, 09:32:37 pm »
Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble. Secondly, Russia has a warm water port! They already own Sevastapol! Why would they invade Ukraine to gain control of a port that they already control?

Sevastopol is part of Ukraine, even though part of Russia's fleet is stationed there. Russia's only port that's ice-free all year round is in the Kaliningrad Oblast.
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Offline Random Gal

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2014, 09:44:38 pm »
So are we already in Cold War II, or is it just around the corner?

Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble. Secondly, Russia has a warm water port! They already own Sevastapol! Why would they invade Ukraine to gain control of a port that they already control?

Sevastopol is part of Ukraine, even though part of Russia's fleet is stationed there. Russia's only port that's ice-free all year round is in the Kaliningrad Oblast.

There's also Vladivostok, but that's on the far side of the country.

Offline Lt. Fred

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2014, 09:49:31 pm »
Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble.
Wait, what? I know icebreakers are a thing, but freighter submarines? Are those actually a thing outside of the military?

No. You're not going to see civilian submarines used.

Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble. Secondly, Russia has a warm water port! They already own Sevastapol! Why would they invade Ukraine to gain control of a port that they already control?
Joint control =/= ownership. Military interest, it contains one of their naval basses for the Black Sea Fleet. They are encroaching on NATO territory, they did this with Georgia before. Economic pressure would no longer be needed as well, see the 2010 Kharkiv Pact.

NATO is encroaching on Russian territory! Georgia and in particular Ukraine have always been part of Russia's sphere of influence, even during the Civil War. The revisionists here are NATO, not Russia. I'm not saying they're wrong, or that they're aggressive, but it's a bit unreasonable to blame the Russians for wanting to maintain the status quo.

Frankly, if the Ukrainians want to be part of Europe, they should be let part of the EU. Any step beyond that, particularly NATO membership, would be very dangerous.
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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2014, 12:33:11 am »
Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble.
Wait, what? I know icebreakers are a thing, but freighter submarines? Are those actually a thing outside of the military?

No. You're not going to see civilian submarines used.
So you're saying that non-submarines can go "under" the ice? I'm pretty sure that's physically impossible (at least not if you ever intend to come back up).

Offline Ultimate Paragon

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2014, 12:50:45 am »
Relevant:


Offline Askold

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2014, 03:50:08 am »
Firstly, warm water ports don't matter anymore. Modern ships can sail through (or, more importantly, under) ice without too much trouble. Secondly, Russia has a warm water port! They already own Sevastapol! Why would they invade Ukraine to gain control of a port that they already control?

They had a deal about the Sevastopol port for 20 years. The deal was made in 1997 so the time was running out.
( http://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/29/world/russia-and-ukraine-finally-reach-accord-on-black-sea-fleet.html )

Times had changed in those 17 years. The control that Russia had over the Ukrainian goverment disappeared when the rioters caused the president to flee to Russia. If things had calmed down then you can bet that Ukraine would have started moving politically away from Russia and in a few years they would have lost the port and any chances of getting a new deal would have been low.

Now they will are taking Crimea and even if they are unable to take the entire Ukraine they get to keep their port and strengthen their position in the region.

Also, had Russia waited to make a move, NATO, EU or UN might have moved into Ukraine to calm things down, by making the first move they stopped those attempts as no one seems to want to start a war with Russia.

EDIT: Russia is now having military excercises right next door to Finland... And their media has already had anti-Finnish propaganda...

...There are no actual threats against Finland yet, but I do not like where things are going. Someone already joked that few months from now, this will be concidered as the moment when you should have packed your stuff and run.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2014, 09:47:39 am by askold »
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Offline Meshakhad

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2014, 01:29:32 pm »
And Simo Hayha died ten years ago, stripping Finland of its deterrent.
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Offline Canadian Mojo

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2014, 04:48:11 pm »

EDIT: Russia is now having military excercises right next door to Finland... And their media has already had anti-Finnish propaganda...

So you're expecting to be accused of shelling a remote boarder outpost some time in the near future.  ;)


Offline Kat S.

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2014, 06:59:28 pm »
In Elena Filatova's opinion, Crimea isn't worth it and is a financial burden to Ukraine.  She stated earlier that if Putin tries to move into mainland Ukraine, he will have bloodshed.  Elena keeps re-editing her posts, so some of her comments will disappear completely.

Meanwhile, the West is trying the diplomatic approach to stopping Russia's antics, but questions how truly effective it will be towards Russia's aggression.  Obama had another conversation with Russia.  Angela Merkel is getting annoyed with Putin and question "if he is in touch with reality".  The EU has to be unanimous in their decision on how to deal with Russia's show of force.

Offline Askold

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #39 on: March 04, 2014, 12:41:55 am »
Gazprom stocks and Russian currency are going down. Furthermore, with USA putting the pressure on Russia this might turn out to be very costly to Putin and Russia.

Not to mention that all the money spent on the olympics to gain goodwill went to waste. (Some people already disliked russia due to their treatment of LGBT minorities and the olympics didn't change that, while the people who liked the olympics and Russia's poor treatment of minorities are likely to not like the invasion of Ukraine.)
No matter what happens, no matter what my last words may end up being, I want everyone to claim that they were:
"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."
Aww, you guys rock. :)  I feel the love... and the pitchforks and torches.  Tingly!

Offline The Illusive Man

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2014, 12:48:20 am »
Meanwhile, the West is trying the diplomatic approach to stopping Russia's antics, but questions how truly effective it will be towards Russia's aggression.  Obama had another conversation with Russia.  Angela Merkel is getting annoyed with Putin and question "if he is in touch with reality".  The EU has to be unanimous in their decision on how to deal with Russia's show of force.
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Offline Cerim Treascair

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #41 on: March 04, 2014, 02:15:11 am »
As I've heard around, they've lost about 60 BILLION due to the Russian ruble falling so damn hard... and 70% of Russians and a VERY large chunk of the military don't approve of what Putin's doing...

Yeah, this is pretty much the global equivalent of shooting yourself in the head if Putin keeps it up.  The Russian military hardware is laughable, they're losing millions by the day... there's even theories that the Ukraine could take on Russia and win with the right circumstances about now.
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Offline Askold

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #42 on: March 04, 2014, 07:16:25 am »
Putin is holding a speech.

He has already claimed that there are no Russian troops in Crimea and that the takeover over there is being done by local volunteers... He also complained about the unlawful revolution in Ukraine.

I need to find a video about this speech as I am certain that his pants are about to spontaneously combust any second.

And all those "No Russian" jokes I've been hearing in the last few days...
« Last Edit: March 04, 2014, 07:18:07 am by askold »
No matter what happens, no matter what my last words may end up being, I want everyone to claim that they were:
"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."
Aww, you guys rock. :)  I feel the love... and the pitchforks and torches.  Tingly!

Offline RavynousHunter

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #43 on: March 04, 2014, 09:31:25 am »
"Unlawful revolution."  ...That's a tad redundant, don't ya think?  If it isn't, I want to see the revolt that is lawful under the country's own laws.  I think unlawfulness is kind of a big part of the whole revolt thing.
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Offline Askold

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Re: Things just got real in Ukraine
« Reply #44 on: March 04, 2014, 09:48:02 am »
"Unlawful revolution."  ...That's a tad redundant, don't ya think?  If it isn't, I want to see the revolt that is lawful under the country's own laws.  I think unlawfulness is kind of a big part of the whole revolt thing.

Actually, that is just me making a bad translation, what he said was that he believes Yakunovich being overthrown was done by illegal mean. He is technically correct about that (the best kind of correct.) Still, he is complaining about one group overthrowing the president while his goons have overthrown the local goverment in Crimea.
No matter what happens, no matter what my last words may end up being, I want everyone to claim that they were:
"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."
Aww, you guys rock. :)  I feel the love... and the pitchforks and torches.  Tingly!