Author Topic: Election 2012 Predictions  (Read 27102 times)

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Offline Rabbit of Caerbannog

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Election 2012 Predictions
« on: August 25, 2012, 12:25:15 pm »
According to two Colorado political science professors, all signs point to a Romney victory in 2012. Based upon their Electoral College Model, which has apparently been correct in every electoral race since 1980, Romney will win every swing state and end with a total of 320 electoral votes. This is, of course, if current economic trends remain as they are. And simply because of their track record in the past, it does not mean that they will necessarily be correct in this election. Another (unscientific) prediction comes from Forbes contributor Bill Frezza, which is amusing in that it was written in May and designed to predict far more than just the winner of the election. For example, he incorrectly predicts that the Supreme Court would have "eviscerated" Obamacare. Really it's less a prediction and more wishful thinking on his part, which makes it amusing to read.

Any other predictions for Presidential winners and/or electoral vote totals can go in this thread :D

Offline m52nickerson

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2012, 12:35:54 pm »
Personally I'm going with FiveThirtyEight.  Nate Silvers model got every thing right in 2008 save Indiana.

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Offline TenfoldMaquette

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2012, 01:25:51 pm »
Obama's had this one in the bag for a while now. At this point, the only way the Republicans can win is if they steal the election or otherwise commit voter fraud.

Offline Canadian Mojo

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2012, 01:51:06 pm »
My prediction is that the Republican attempts to fire up their core with all their over the top bullshit is going to work -- at getting the dyed-in-the-wool "I hate 'dat nigger socialist Muslim commie feminist second amendment stealing bastard" types to come out to vote. At the same time it is going to convince a lot of the more mainstream republicans who are pretty cool on Rommney to begin with to sit this election out while convincing democrats who might be inclined to sit out because Obama is a disappointment to vote for him to keep the fuckwits out of office.

In other words, the votes that you actually need to fight for are being handed to the democrats.

Having said that, I am curious to know how you can make any meaningful predictions before the nomination or the debates. Those two events have the chance to change the tone of an election in a damn hurry. Either side could step in it big time, but so far it's the republicans shoes that smell the worst.

Offline sandman

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2012, 02:32:08 pm »
Obama has some problems going in to this election, most significantly the economy and how poorly he is managing to get his message out about it. The truth is that the economy is improving under Obama, but most people do not perceive it as such because the GOP is spending more money than God to make you think it isn't. When actually pressed with facts, Romney has to admit that the economy is improving, and then spends the next 20 minutes claiming that under his leadership it would "improve faster." This despite the fact that what he wants to do is a more extreme version of what got us in the mess in the first place.

Imagine two men standing by a burning car. The first man has turned off the ignition in the car and has been carefully removing all of the flammable material from the immediate area. He has plans to clean up the mess and restore the car as soon as the flames go out and has been kicking sand and dirt on the places he can to encourage the fire to die. He is having slow success at this. He has admitted that restoring the car is probably going to be expensive and has made some phone calls to start getting the financing on the project together. He knows it is going to take some time to pay off the money he will have to borrow to get the car working again, but he also knows that he absolutely needs the car running or he won't be able to get to work and everything will just fall apart. He doesn't really want to do it this way, but he realizes he has no choice and out of all possible solutions, it's the best of the lot.

Then the second man says, "You know what will really get the car running again?" and throws a can of gas on it.

That's Obama v. Romney on the economy. And Obama doesn't seem to be able to communicate this to the people.

On the other hand, Romney has some SERIOUS issues.

1. He's a Mormon. I'm not one to hold someone's religion against them, even one as retarded as Mormonism, but the GOP base sure as hell is. A large majority of GOP supporters consider themselves to be evangelical or "born-again" Christians, and to an evangelical Christian, Mormons are a dangerous, Satan-worshiping cult. That's not an exaggeration, I have personally heard religious leaders use that exact term. By nominating Romney, the GOP is asking a large portion of their supporters to choose between a "Muslim socialist" and a "Satan-worshiping cultist." I almost expect to see a lot of Mike Huckabee write-in votes come November.

Romney simply lacks the charisma to overcome this, and the only reason the media aren't going after his Mormonism with both hands is because the Mormon church is astonishingly litigious. (To put it in perspective, the Mormons are one of the few targets the Scientologists won't go after.) They tried to offset this disadvantage with the selection of Paul Ryan as VP, but Ryan has his own baggage, from being spotted drinking $350 bottles of wine at lobbyist dinners to having voted for TARP.

2. Romney is too fucking rich. I mean, the man is shockingly rich. And the vast majority of his money comes from other-people's work and sweat. He is the caricature of a rich investor, sitting in his mansion raking in money from legacies, overseas tax haven investment houses, and capital gains, none of which require him to lift a finger to so much as cash a check. The man simply wakes up each morning with more money than he went to bed with.

This is something the average American simply can't relate to, and Romney can't seem to stop acting like the little guy on the Monopoly board. If he isn't hosting $20,000 a plate luncheons in the Hamptons for privileged, arrogant, self-proclaimed "VIPs" in hundred thousand dollar custom SUVs, then he's mentioning his wife's "several" Cadillacs, tearing down his multi-million dollar mansion just so he can build another, bigger multi-million dollar mansion with an elevator for his cars, admitting that his business interests use Chinese sweat shop child labor, or having to admit that under Paul Ryan's proposed revamp of the tax code he would pay a tax rate of 0.86%.

He's not just a rich man, he's a REALLY rich man who can't seem to stop acting like it. Even when he dresses down to be more "relatable" he's still wearing a $500 shirt and imported $1000 Italian leather shoes. He holds himself up as some paragon of the "American dream," a supposedly "self-made man," but he seems to forget the fact that he, like most other millionaires, was BORN a millionaire. His solution to rising college costs and a shrinking Federal Student Loan program is to "borrow more money from your parents." He seems utterly unaware in the Marie Antoinette comment that most Americans, especially the ones who really NEED college, have parents with no money to borrow. Sure, when you grow up a Romney or a Cheney or a Bush, calling dad for money is always an option, but for most of us it stopped being viable the instant the housing market went tits up and all of a sudden mom and dad owed more on their two bedroom bungalow than it was worth despite having made 15 years of payments.

So all things considered, I don't really think he has much of a chance. Between the Sophie's Choice being required of the evangelical GOP base and the sheer unrelatable, arrogant wealth of the man, I don't think this is Romney's year.

But I suppose I could be wrong, God help us all.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 02:35:22 pm by sandman »
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Offline Rabbit of Caerbannog

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2012, 02:51:07 pm »
2. Romney is too fucking rich. I mean, the man is shockingly rich. And the vast majority of his money comes from other-people's work and sweat. He is the caricature of a rich investor, sitting in his mansion raking in money from legacies, overseas tax haven investment houses, and capital gains, none of which require him to lift a finger to so much as cash a check. The man simply wakes up each morning with more money than he went to bed with.

This is something the average American simply can't relate to, and Romney can't seem to stop acting like the little guy on the Monopoly board. If he isn't hosting $20,000 a plate luncheons in the Hamptons for privileged, arrogant, self-proclaimed "VIPs" in hundred thousand dollar custom SUVs, then he's mentioning his wife's "several" Cadillacs, tearing down his multi-million dollar mansion just so he can build another, bigger multi-million dollar mansion with an elevator for his cars, admitting that his business interests use Chinese sweat shop child labor, or having to admit that under Paul Ryan's proposed revamp of the tax code he would pay a tax rate of 0.86%.

He's not just a rich man, he's a REALLY rich man who can't seem to stop acting like it. Even when he dresses down to be more "relatable" he's still wearing a $500 shirt and imported $1000 Italian leather shoes. He holds himself up as some paragon of the "American dream," a supposedly "self-made man," but he seems to forget the fact that he, like most other millionaires, was BORN a millionaire. His solution to rising college costs and a shrinking Federal Student Loan program is to "borrow more money from your parents." He seems utterly unaware in the Marie Antoinette comment that most Americans, especially the ones who really NEED college, have parents with no money to borrow. Sure, when you grow up a Romney or a Cheney or a Bush, calling dad for money is always an option, but for most of us it stopped being viable the instant the housing market went tits up and all of a sudden mom and dad owed more on their two bedroom bungalow than it was worth despite having made 15 years of payments.
This is all very true. He's so out of touch he's essentially a parody of the greedy capitalist, and the only way he can relate to people is by way of a series of uncomfortable compliments about the local flora and American cars which somehow remind me of Anchorman's Brick Tamland. Then there's the photo of that slimeball protesting in favor of the Vietnam War draft, which sent thousands of poor Americans to fight and die overseas so that Mittens could continue living in the lap of luxury. Of course, while I feel that Mitt could be viewed by Tea Partiers as their last white hope against a possibly Kenyan-born Islamist usurper, I'm interested in hearing Romney try and convince them that there was some fundamental difference between Romneycare and Obamacare that makes him worth voting for. Add to that his persistent waffling over gun rights, abortion and gay rights and see what happens.

Offline Witchyjoshy

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2012, 02:54:41 pm »
Here's a question... which does the religious right hate more?  Mormonism, or Islam?
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Offline myusername

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2012, 03:01:27 pm »
Here's a question... which does the religious right hate more?  Mormonism, or Islam?

I'd say based on my experiences kn the msin page, Islam, since all of those islamucs are terrurists that are goung to get us with their Muslamic ray guns.

Romney is so bourgeois he makes David Cameron look like a commoner.

Offline Rabbit of Caerbannog

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2012, 03:02:26 pm »
Here's a question... which does the religious right hate more?  Mormonism, or Islam?
I'm going to say Islam, because I can at least find some religious right figures defending Romney in spite of his faith. Matt Barber for one.

Offline Vypernight

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2012, 03:16:21 pm »
I work with a lot of Obama-haters who claim Romney is the greatest thing right now and Obama is destroying the nation.  Even when I point out that Romney and Ryan's tax plan will (not 'could') bankrupt 99% of the nation.  Combine that with The Republicans' plan to fix the economy being nothing but deregulating everything (and nothing else), and it should be Obvious that Obama is the better choice. 

Here's a Question though.  I'm seeing ads saying Obama's work with Solyndra did nothing but hurt the taxpayers.  Is this true?  I looked it up, but all I can find is that the company went bankrupt even after getting funds from the gov't.

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Offline sandman

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2012, 03:20:08 pm »
The claim is that the taxpayers lost money when Obama gave grants to Solynda, supposedly because they were political supporters of his.

It is true that when Solynda went tits up, the taxpayers were out the cash invested in it, just as any investor would be if the company he invested in went bust. But since the money was a grant and not a loan, it would not have been directly repaid anyway, so it's a disingenuous claim to say taxpayers were "hurt."

There is no evidence at all that the grant was made to repay political support. This claim is simply slander.
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Offline Witchyjoshy

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2012, 03:33:52 pm »
Here's a question... which does the religious right hate more?  Mormonism, or Islam?

I'd say based on my experiences kn the msin page, Islam, since all of those islamucs are terrurists that are goung to get us with their Muslamic ray guns.

Romney is so bourgeois he makes David Cameron look like a commoner.
Here's a question... which does the religious right hate more?  Mormonism, or Islam?
I'm going to say Islam, because I can at least find some religious right figures defending Romney in spite of his faith. Matt Barber for one.

And this is what I'm worried about, and why I don't think Romney's religion is important so far as he's not Muslim like they believe Obama to be.

Another question: Which do you think the religious right hates more: Mormonism, or Liberal Christianity?
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Offline Patches

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2012, 04:08:12 pm »
Another question: Which do you think the religious right hates more: Mormonism, or Liberal Christianity?

Well, since the religious right doesn't believe there is even such a thing as liberal Christianity, probably Mormonism.  As for liberals who claim to be Christians but obviously aren't because they're liberals, yeah, they definitely hate them more than Mormons.

Offline largeham

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2012, 04:39:29 pm »
Romney being a stereotypical capitalist isn't a bad thing for the (both really) party's base: business owners, small and large.

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Offline Vypernight

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Re: Election 2012 Predictions
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2012, 05:01:02 pm »
Romney being a stereotypical capitalist isn't a bad thing for the (both really) party's base: business owners, small and large.

I don't see where they favor small businesses.  Actually, I don't see whom they favor aside from super-rich males.
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