Author Topic: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?  (Read 7716 times)

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Offline Ultimate Paragon

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Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« on: January 17, 2014, 05:01:54 pm »
It seems that Hollywood's bubble is going to burst sometime soon.  Budgets are exploding, audiences are losing interest, and filmmakers and executives are becoming set in their ways.  This is a pattern that has occurred twice before: at the fall of the Studio System, and at the end of New Hollywood.  It seems that we're destined for a third big collapse.

What do you think?

Offline Cerim Treascair

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2014, 06:29:55 pm »
Wow, you're so incredibly wrong it's hilarious.  Have you seen the take Frozen's gotten for Disney? Or the hype surrounding How To Train Your Dragon 2?  That's just animated stuff, what about the sequel to The Raid? I can keep going...
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Offline Katsuro

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2014, 07:01:24 pm »
Are audiences loosing interest?  Do you have a source with world wide figures for that (that's a serious question btw, I'm not being a snarky dick)?

I thought movies were still making huge amounts of profits.  Hence why there are so many sequels - flops don't get sequels.  And I've not personally heard or read anything that would suggest a decline in interest.  The buzz surrounding the movie scene seems much the same as it ever was as far as I can tell.

I do agree though some more creativity and orignality would be nice; there does seem to be more franchises surpassing their 2nd sequel than I remember in the past. And a lot of studios seem to be playing it safe, taking fewer risks and aiming for that golden 12 certificate   But I'm not sure the level of creativity, orignality and risk taking is genuinely less than it was, say, 20 years ago or if I'm just older and more cynical now and therefore more prone to noticing and giving a fuck about the issue.

Offline ironbite

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2014, 07:11:28 pm »
Citation for that audience losing interest bullshit you just shat all over the forum?

Offline chitoryu12

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2014, 07:27:03 pm »
If anything, movies are even more profitable. It's not as unusual for a film to make close to or even exceed a $1 billion box office take. While budgets are increasing, the box office profitability seems to be increasing along with it. Only the truly bad movies, like RIPD, are having problems turning a profit with purely box office sales. More than one movie has recently released that made a profit within the opening weekend or first week.

While it seems like everything is just sequels and remakes nowadays, that's been happening practically since the dawn of the motion picture industry. Dracula alone has had over 40 film adaptations. What seems to be more common, in fact, are sequels for non-animated films becoming more common in actual theaters rather than being direct-to-video schlock that's churned out with none of the original actors and tossed into Walmart for a dime. And honestly, I don't mind films (original or otherwise) receiving sequels. How to Train Your Dragon has more stories to tell than the one adapted from the children's book, and I don't see why most fictional universes should be restricted to a single story and then archived.
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Offline Ultimate Paragon

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2014, 07:33:58 pm »
Theater occupation is dropping.  The fact is, fewer people are going to the movies.  And Hollywood's current obsession with summer blockbusters is going to bite them sometime soon.  Eventually, somebody's going to release a massive bomb, much like the debacle with Cleopatra or Heaven's Gate.

Offline chitoryu12

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2014, 07:40:41 pm »
Theater occupation is dropping.  The fact is, fewer people are going to the movies.

If someone asks you to provide a citation and you simply ignore them, you are now scientifically proven to be fucking around and should either provide a citation or give up.
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Offline Vypernight

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2014, 07:58:45 pm »
http://www.the-numbers.com/market/

Technically, he's right.  Box office sales were lower in 2013 than in 2012.

That being said, they are only slightly lower, and they're actually about the same as 2011.  In other words, ticket sales are moving more like a wave and less moving downhill.  In addition, they're still higher than they were 20 years ago.

I also have a feeling they're going to be MUCH higher in 2015, with Avengers 2, Pirates 5, Star War VII, etc.

So to answer Paragon's question, no, Hollywood's not going anywhere . . . at least unless Disney buys it as well.
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Offline Morgenleoht

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2014, 07:59:22 pm »
Here's Australian statistics from a couple years ago:
http://www.screenaustralia.gov.au/research/statistics/wcrmattend.aspx

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/4172.0.55.001~March+2011~Main+Features~Cinema+Attendance?OpenDocument

Could Hollywood shift a bit? Yes. We need more diversity. But I think cinema will be around for a long time.
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Offline Sigmaleph

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2014, 08:14:47 pm »
If anything, movies are even more profitable. It's not as unusual for a film to make close to or even exceed a $1 billion box office take. While budgets are increasing, the box office profitability seems to be increasing along with it.

True, but essentially meaningless without adjusting for inflation. Once you do that, older movies and newer movies are on a more even footing. (source)

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Offline ironbite

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2014, 08:21:11 pm »
Ticket sales are down in...Australia?  That's your proof?  That's your panic?

Ironbite-whatever rock you crawled out of?  Go back there.

Offline chitoryu12

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2014, 08:38:18 pm »
Ticket sales are down in...Australia?  That's your proof?  That's your panic?

Ironbite-whatever rock you crawled out of?  Go back there.

I think you should look at who made that post again.
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Offline Flying Mint Bunny!

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2014, 08:53:43 pm »
Theater occupation is dropping.  The fact is, fewer people are going to the movies.  And Hollywood's current obsession with summer blockbusters is going to bite them sometime soon.  Eventually, somebody's going to release a massive bomb, much like the debacle with Cleopatra or Heaven's Gate.

Cinema ticket sales going down isn't the same thing as interest in films going down.

I saw this crappy list show once, about the Top 100 Movies and it was based on cinema ticket sales. There were only a few 80s films in the whole list, because that was when video was invented, and people stopped going to the cinema as much because renting fillms became popular. People hadn't stopped enjoying films though, they were just watching them in a different way.

Offline ironbite

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2014, 08:54:10 pm »
Wow....I am so so sorry.

Ironbite-seriously sorry.

Offline chitoryu12

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Re: Is Hollywood headed for another collapse?
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2014, 09:04:24 pm »
Wow....I am so so sorry.

Ironbite-seriously sorry.

You can take her rock now if you need it.
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