Author Topic: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack  (Read 1798 times)

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Offline Fpqxz

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Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« on: October 06, 2012, 04:07:18 am »
From BBC:

Turkey has fired into Syria for a fourth day after a Syrian mortar landed near a Turkish village, reports say.

Turkish troops responded immediately after the mortar landed near the village of Guvecci in Hatay province, according to Turkey's Anadolu Agency.  Turkey has been firing into Syria since Syrian mortar fire killed five Turkish civilians on Wednesday.  It was the first time Turkey has taken military action across the border since the Syrian uprising began.
***
Following the killing of two women and three children in the Turkish border town of Akcakale this week, Turkey's parliament authorised troops to launch cross-border operations against Syria and strike at Syrian targets for a period of one year.

This is starting to look less like a "civil war" and more like a developing regional conflict.  Turkey is a NATO member with considerable military strength, and the possibility of war (even of the "limited" variety) between these two nations risks drawing the Western powers into the fray.

I'm not much for prognostications, but I think this is going to get much worse before it gets better.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2012, 04:08:50 am by Fpqxz »
Read some real news:  Allgov.com, JURIST

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Offline Random Dinosaur

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 04:19:36 am »
Personally, I'm hoping Turkey enters the conflict against Assad, crushes him, and the opposition takes over.
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Offline Askold

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 05:05:00 am »
Turkey is in NATO. Syria is supported by Russia.


I'm not saying that a war between NATO and Russia is likely to start from this. In fact a lot of people are probably thinking hard to figure out how to keep this from escalating while still being able to give support to Syria/Turkey.

On one hand Russia has no actual legal obligation to help Syria if they are attacked, but seeing that they are willing to support the current regime despite all the bullshit they have done it makes you wonder how far will they go.
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Offline Art Vandelay

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 05:16:55 am »
On one hand Russia has no actual legal obligation to help Syria if they are attacked, but seeing that they are willing to support the current regime despite all the bullshit they have done it makes you wonder how far will they go.
I doubt the Russians would consider it worth their while to continue supporting Syria. Assad's government is a sinking ship, there's no question about it. Any meaningful support the Russians throw at it now would achieve nothing but waste money and irritate the rest of the world.

Offline Yla

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 08:50:54 am »
It's less that Russia supports Assad, it's more of not wanting another West-supported intervention and regime change.
That said, I've stopped trying to anticipate what people around here want a while ago, I've found it makes things smoother.
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Offline Art Vandelay

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 09:03:59 am »
I'm aware of that, I'm saying that now is far to late for the Russians to really do anything to prevent it. No one's denying that the Russians are powerful, but they really don't have what it takes to keep any 3rd government afloat once NATO decides that they will be removed in the near future.

Offline largeham

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 10:27:47 am »
Personally, I'm hoping Turkey enters the conflict against Assad, crushes him, and the opposition takes over.

I don't. It will simply replace Assad with a guy who is controlled by Turkey and/or NATO and/or America.

Regarding Russia v. NATO, Turkey, and by extension NATO, isn't (aren't) Georgia, a country which wasn't (IIRC) in NATO and a tiny pipsqueak of a country who's military is based on what scraps it could gain from the fall of the USSR.

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 12:10:09 pm »
Why?  all I'm asking is why would you do this?  Why would you fire a mortar into a country who is not weakened by a civil war, is not embroiled in conflict, and who's military not only dwarfs your's, you probably bought their cast offs from their last fire sale?  AND WHY WOULD YOU CONTINUE TO FIRE INTO THEM!?

Ironbite-I'm thinking Assad is trying to wreck his country before he goes down.

Offline Meshakhad

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2012, 12:39:15 pm »
It's less that Russia supports Assad, it's more of not wanting another West-supported intervention and regime change.

Agreed. But this isn't worth starting World War III over. Russia might pitch a fit, but they won't be sending any help to Assad.

I'm slightly more optimistic about the next regime. For a start, the Syrian Free Army is powerful enough that unless Turkey wants to fight them, the new regime will be led by someone from the SFA. They'll likely resent America for not helping them against Assad, but they'll hate Iran and Hezbollah a lot more.

If Turkey does go in, I think the US should pitch in as well. Given that Syria's probably out of range for the French or British air forces (barring the use of Turkish or Israeli airbases), I think the US should take the lead more this time. Park a carrier off the coast, and make the Syrian air force go away.

I've also wondered if Israel should consider getting involved. On the one hand, it would hand Assad a major propaganda weapon. On the other hand, it might be too late for that. And if you want an idea of what Israel can do to Syria, look up the Six Day War, then consider that Israel would not be worrying about Jordan or Egypt. Most importantly, it might be the key to finally bringing about peace between Israel and Syria (they're still technically at war). If Israel helped out in a big way, the new regime would probably be quite willing to come to the table over the Golan Heights.
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Offline Old Viking

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2012, 03:43:13 pm »
Ya doesn't want to mess with the Turks. A friend who fought in Korea said it was the only national contingent that preferred the bayonet to other weapons ... that they were perfectly willing to endure casualties if it meant they could get to you face-to-face and have fun.  I don't know if the preference still prevails, but it certainly suggests a mindset.
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Offline Lt. Fred

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2012, 06:42:39 pm »
Ya doesn't want to mess with the Turks. A friend who fought in Korea said it was the only national contingent that preferred the bayonet to other weapons ... that they were perfectly willing to endure casualties if it meant they could get to you face-to-face and have fun.  I don't know if the preference still prevails, but it certainly suggests a mindset.

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Offline niam2023

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2012, 03:11:44 am »
Assad, you dumb piece of shit, who the hell do you think you're waging war on? Do you even remember?
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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 12:20:09 pm »
Can we instigate? Please? Armaggedon's coming, and we've got a Dec. 21st deadline to keep.
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Offline Atheissimo

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2012, 05:21:19 pm »
It's less that Russia supports Assad, it's more of not wanting another West-supported intervention and regime change.

 Given that Syria's probably out of range for the French or British air forces (barring the use of Turkish or Israeli airbases), I think the US should take the lead more this time. Park a carrier off the coast, and make the Syrian air force go away.


The French have a carrier of their own they could use, though the British won't have fixed wing carriers again until 2020 they have an airbase in Cyprus that's off the Syrian coast. No such luck I'm afraid
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Offline Meshakhad

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Re: Turkey responds to Syrian cross-border mortar attack
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 02:25:27 am »
It's less that Russia supports Assad, it's more of not wanting another West-supported intervention and regime change.

 Given that Syria's probably out of range for the French or British air forces (barring the use of Turkish or Israeli airbases), I think the US should take the lead more this time. Park a carrier off the coast, and make the Syrian air force go away.


The French have a carrier of their own they could use, though the British won't have fixed wing carriers again until 2020 they have an airbase in Cyprus that's off the Syrian coast. No such luck I'm afraid

Right. Still, I think the US wouldn't be amiss showing that we can do the hard work when we have to. Besides, I have a feeling that tonight's gonna be a good night that Assad might be a harder target than Gaddafi, so maybe throwing in some Yanks to support the Brits and the Frogs might be a good idea. Of course, it would be even better if we could get the Israelis to ROFLstomp Assad.
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