Author Topic: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead  (Read 4973 times)

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Offline armandtanzarian

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Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« on: September 25, 2012, 09:38:47 am »
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality

Some explanation/tl'dr: Of all the polling firms out there, one of the least reliable, most skewed polls tend to be Rasmussen. Almost consistently they've skewed far to the right when polling, for reasons that can't be explained by their use of landlines alone. Nate Silver hates them, and a few aggregators exclude them from their calculations.

All polling data skew their data according to demographics like political affiliation, region, age, etc. Because pollsters usually only poll a few thousand at most, they will skew the data according to what they this is the makeup of the likely voting populace. All companies do it slightly differently, but Rasmussen has always tended to include more Republicans than Democrats.

This last part is important, because this is has led the right wing to accuse everyone else of bias towards the Democrats. One guy took it further and actually reworked all pollsters' data to fit Rasmussen's demographic and affiliation assumptions. So unsurprising for a makeup that is more heavily Republican, Romney wins.


Of course we already have solid evidence of how inaccurate Rasmussen is. In 2008 and 2010 they've performed worst of every pollster; there's a reason this site has a Rasmussen-free map. This site says nope, the dozen or so other polls are wrong and this consistently-inaccurate company is right. Worst part is the gall of the title though. Unskewed? Really?

Offline rookie

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 01:32:02 pm »
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality
Worst part is the gall of the title though. Unskewed? Really?

Yup. Unskewed. They called every registered republican and six democrats in the area. And those are the numbers they got.
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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 05:39:49 pm »
Not surprising. Being a wingnut requires rejecting reality and substituting your own.

Offline Rabbit of Caerbannog

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 06:46:37 pm »
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality
Worst part is the gall of the title though. Unskewed? Really?

Yup. Unskewed. They called every registered republican and six democrats in the area. And those are the numbers they got.
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Offline Lt. Fred

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 08:26:07 pm »
Romney was always going to do well in a thought-experiment election where the first premise is to presume only Republican voters exist.
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Offline tempus

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2012, 10:47:30 pm »


This election is going to be so much fun.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 10:51:19 pm by tempus »
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Offline VirtualStranger

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2012, 04:57:21 pm »
You know how this whole "unskewed polls" shit started to get attention?

FreeRepublic.com

I fucking love that they're setting themselves up in their own alternate reality where Obama is losing every poll. That just means that when he wins, the conservative tears will be all the more delicious.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2012, 04:59:02 pm by VirtualStranger »

Offline armandtanzarian

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2012, 01:14:49 am »
And now it reaches FOX.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/fox-friends-polls-rigged-conspiracy.php?ref=fpa

FOX on TV says the polls lie, but FOX's data teams also say Obama leads in swing states outside of the MoE.

WHO TO BELIEVE!!!!

Offline DrFishcake

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2012, 03:44:51 am »
Being in the same fantasy football league as this guy is probably a pain in the ass.

Offline Rabbit of Caerbannog

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2012, 01:53:53 am »
You know how this whole "unskewed polls" shit started to get attention?

FreeRepublic.com

I fucking love that they're setting themselves up in their own alternate reality where Obama is losing every poll. That just means that when he wins, the conservative tears will be all the more delicious.
Oh my, this FReeper thread is hilarious. It's about how the right-leaning Rasmussen pollsters say that, even with their methodology, Obama has a two point lead that might extend into November. Cue the wailing of the FReepers:

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After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.
 
It will be fun. --Puckster

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I am confused here.
 Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

 I hate the Media. I think most polls are biased. But I also don't want to be "spun" by my own allies. Where are we to get truly objective analysis? --Lysandru

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Scott Rastaman has been smoking something. Reagan was tremendously outpolled even on the very eve of the election and he destroyed Carter. He even took Illinois. The current polls have to over-sample Democrats and employ 2008, not 2010, Democrat voter turn out numbers just to keep Obama and Romney neck and neck. Fewer people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans. About twice as many Americans describe themselves as conservatives as liberals. There's a shrinking number of self-identified Democrats and a growing number of self-identified Republicans. The number of "Hey, let's give Obama a chance and see what he can do" voters will be drastically reduced. The number of "I'm a college student voting for hope and change" voters will be sharply down. The number of "I voted for Obama because I don't want people to think I'm a racist" voters will be seriously eroded by the "I said I voted for Obama because I didn't want people to think I'm a racist but this guy has completely effed us over so I really voted for Romney" voters. --aruanan

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Identity politics. Blacks DO NOT CARE. Nor does any other group that gets locked in to voting for one party because they've been trained to hate the other. Hispanics are increasingly acting like blacks when it comes to voting habits. If Obama at a living baby on live TV, they would still vote for him. Blacks will NEVER vote Republican in our lifetime. They see conservatives as the enemy first and foremost - people who can't relate with them and might take away their freebies. Detroit, for example, is a failed city and yet the the inhabitants will keep voting Democratic no matter what (they'd actually vote for Kwame Kilpatrick again if they could). The idea that people in Democracies can be counted on to self correct is WRONG. Populations will choose the wrong course and stick with it to their demise. There is no evidence in history that people somehow can be counted on to do the right thing. --Longbow1969

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I think even Rasmussen has no clue what he is talking about this time around. In 2008 it took a perfect storm of anger at Bush, unusually high enthusiasm by young people who thought Obama was “cool”, blacks who foolishly thought that Obama was going to put gas in their cars and pay their bills, and whites on the left (and even some on the right) who felt warm and fuzzy about voting for a black president. It is impossible for support for Obama to be any higher than it was in 2008. Impossible.
 
Since then, we have the incredible rise of the Tea Party, disillusionment of blacks and the youth vote, and the opening of the eyes of most whites to what Obama truly represents. We have a crumbling economy, and international relations in utter chaos, yet Rasmussen and other pollsters seriously believe that we are going to see a similar result in 2012 to that in 2008? Complete and utter nonsense.
 
Obama will lose; the only question is the magnitude of the loss. --noiseman

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40% of the African American population has an IQ below 80.
 This is just a fact. You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but it is easier to fool a group of people that have an average IQ of 85. That is around 18 PTS below the IQ on an average European American.

 Could this be part of the cause for the stunning poll number? After all O’Bumbler is only half Black. The part that abandoned him as a child. --Jim from C-Town

Offline Normandy

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Re: Idiot reweights national polls, reality, gives Romney solid lead
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2012, 05:20:18 pm »
And these are the same people that claim it's the mainstream media that's biased.  Riiiiight.  ::)