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Community => Politics and Government => Topic started by: dpareja on February 27, 2018, 05:22:22 pm

Title: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on February 27, 2018, 05:22:22 pm
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/AZ#H08_
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/TX
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/PA#H18_
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/IL

Today, there's a primary for the special election in Arizona's 8th Congressional district to fill the seat vacated by Trent Franks, and next week, the primary for the 2018 midterms in Texas takes place, including the Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz.

The week after that, there's a special election to fill the seat in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district, vacated by Tim Murphy, and the week after that, Illinois holds its primaries for the midterm elections.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/375664-scott-walker-sued-by-eric-holder-backed-group-over-special-elections

But over in Wisconsin, Scott Walker is refusing to hold elections to fill two vacant seats in the state legislature.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Cloud3514 on February 27, 2018, 06:10:35 pm
Scott Walker is, if I remember correctly, extremely unpopular. That he won reelection after being recalled would baffle me if I didn't know how bad this state's gerrymandering is.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on February 27, 2018, 08:14:39 pm
Scott Walker is, if I remember correctly, extremely unpopular. That he won reelection after being recalled would baffle me if I didn't know how bad this state's gerrymandering is.

Scott Walker is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. According to Morning Consult...

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/01/governor-rankings-jan-2018/

He's 9th most unpopular Governor in the country. (Note: two of the people ahead of him are Chris Christie and Sam Brownback, who are no longer or will shortly be no longer in office.)

Not sure how he was doing when he was recalled, but gerrymandering would have had nothing to do with it, since it was a statewide race. Other forms of voter suppression would, of course, have impacted things.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Cloud3514 on February 27, 2018, 11:08:17 pm
You're right. The point stands though. The chances of winning after a recall are extremely low and considering how Wisconsin has some of the worst voter suppression (and gerrymandering, but, as we've established, I misspoke by bringing it up) in the country, it's absolutely embarrassing that he's still in office.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on February 28, 2018, 04:41:38 pm
He's still in there because people stayed home on election day.  For all the cries of recalling his ass, nobody showed up to the polls.  Couple that with his voter suppression tactics, no surprise he's still around.

Ironbite-might not be after this election.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 06, 2018, 07:11:58 pm
Meanwhile, a reminder to go vote.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/TX

Texas primaries are taking place today, with polls closing approximately 50 minutes after I post this (except for the area around El Paso, where polls close approximately 110 minutes after I post this).
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 07, 2018, 06:24:38 pm
https://www.tedcruz.org/press-releases/cruz-senate-campaign-releases-statewide-radio-ad/

Ted Cruz has released an ad attacking his Democratic opponent in the 2018 Senate election, Beto O'Rourke.

The ad is in the form of a country song, starting as follows:

Quote
If you’re gonna run in Texas.
You can’t be a liberal man.

He also attacks O'Rourke for going by Beto when his given name is Robert... even though Ted Cruz goes by a short form of not his given name, Rafael, but of his middle name, Edward.

And let's remember just how much Trump broke Cruz in 2016:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXpferZVMAAg2MW.jpg)
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on March 07, 2018, 07:10:06 pm
Oh I really hope Cruz will get destroyed by this guy. I have no faith in it but I really hope he does.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 07, 2018, 07:36:03 pm
Oh I really hope Cruz will get destroyed by this guy. I have no faith in it but I really hope he does.

Texas' demographics are changing, and Republicans are fleeing the GOP there.

Consider: the quintessential swing state in Presidential elections is Ohio.

1992: Clinton +2
1996: Clinton +6
2000: Bush +3.5
2004: Bush +2
2008: Obama +4.5
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +8.5

Compare Texas:

1992: Bush +3.5
1996: Dole +5
2000: Bush +21.5
2004: Bush +23
2008: McCain +12
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9

Ohio's been arguably trending more Republican, while Texas has been trending more Democratic. I think that O'Rourke has a very good shot at taking out Cruz, and whoever wins the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020 also has a damn good shot at flipping the state. (If you flip only Texas from Trump to Clinton in 2016, and assuming every elector votes for their party's candidate, Clinton wins the electoral vote 270-268.) Making Texas a swing state would be a huge shift in Presidential politics, and the 2018 races will be very telling as to whether that could happen. Plus, shifting some of the GOP's 25 House seats to the Democrats would be big, and flipping the Governor's office would allow the Dems to get more favourable legislative maps after the 2020 Census.

Texas is definitely a state to watch.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on March 07, 2018, 08:25:45 pm
Texas had a 100%+ increase in Democratic voting yesterday.  It's such a turnout that the GOP launched a lawsuit in order to throw the Democrats off the ballot completely.

Ironbite-they're seeing the growing storm and they're trying to stop it any way they can.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Cloud3514 on March 07, 2018, 08:35:39 pm
God, what a healthy democracy this country has.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 07, 2018, 10:46:33 pm
Texas had a 100%+ increase in Democratic voting yesterday.  It's such a turnout that the GOP launched a lawsuit in order to throw the Democrats off the ballot completely.

Ironbite-they're seeing the growing storm and they're trying to stop it any way they can.

I think the lawsuit began back in January. They only amended it recently to be about the general election in November rather than the primary because early voting had begun with the challenged candidates already on the ballots used for advance polling.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on March 11, 2018, 11:39:21 pm
Rafael Edward "Zodiac Killer" Cruz is upset that someone goes by a nickname?

Say it isn't so.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 13, 2018, 02:48:44 pm
If you live in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (under the current map), just a reminder that there is a special election today. Polls close at 8 PM EDT.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/PA#H18_

EDIT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

As of this writing, with 581 of 593 precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Conor Lamb leads Republican candidate Rick Saccone by 700 votes in the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district. (And keep in mind, this district is R+11.)

EDIT #2: With 591 of 593 precincts reporting, Lamb leads Saccone by 847 votes.

Note, however, that the two precincts not yet reporting are in Westmoreland County, which is heavily Republican.

EDIT #3: With all precincts reporting, Lamb has received 579 more votes than Saccone.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on March 14, 2018, 02:45:48 am
 The blue wave is happening. I hope Trump is getting nervous.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 14, 2018, 02:49:44 am
The blue wave is happening. I hope Trump is getting nervous.

As I always tell Republicans, the one thing I know about Democrats is that they are very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 14, 2018, 02:55:00 am
Whatever bro.

I don't find your latest post worth really responding to.

Lamb won, Torturer lost.

Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on March 14, 2018, 05:23:15 am
Trump doesn't have enough self awarness to be nervous
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: RavynousHunter on March 14, 2018, 09:08:27 am
Even if a blue wave is happening, that is no reason to get complacent.  Remember, we were complacent that Hil-dog winning was just a fact, and that turned out to not happen.  In the words of Alistair Moody: CONSTANT VIGILANCE!
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 14, 2018, 03:29:03 pm
NYT now has Lamb leading by 627 (some absentee and such ballots have been counted), but there's still some more results to come in, generally from Republican-leaning parts of the district.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on March 15, 2018, 01:05:33 am
Lamb confirmed for winner. Also I got a robocall survey today, so that's how you know that the election is coming.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 02:06:04 am
Lamb confirmed for winner. Also I got a robocall survey today, so that's how you know that the election is coming.

I'd be surprised if Saccone didn't challenge the result (and wouldn't blame him, given how close it was). Of course, doing a recount in Pennsylvania is difficult at best, since most of the voting there (AFAIK) is done on machines that leave no paper trail.

Hand-marked paper ballots read by machine, and retained for manual recounts if necessary. That's what we use for civic elections here in Vancouver (27 elected positions--all our civic officers are elected at-large--plus generally 5 referendum questions). Speedy tabulation combined with security and surety of the vote.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 02:12:35 am
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Eiki-mun on March 15, 2018, 02:51:00 am
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.

Generally speaking, whenever an election is within half a percentage point, a recount is a viable thing for the loser to ask for. You're letting your biases control you.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 03:07:58 am
@ Eiki-mun: Maybe, but I'm noticing something that might resemble a pattern here. But then, biases.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 03:54:23 am
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.

I think Moore was right to want a recount, precisely because it was close. (And Jones is nobody's leftist.) (EDIT: Of course, the Alabama special Senate election was nowhere near as close as the one currently under discussion; see below regarding my thoughts on whether a recount should occur.)

Do not think that I would somehow prefer Saccone or Moore to win; that does not mean I cannot also lament that their primary opposition was also not to my personal taste in political philosophy. (Lizard elections, if you will.)

What I want is to be sure that the result is correct, whatever effect that might ultimately have on the outcome. If a recount were to show that, in fact, Saccone had won, then while I would not like that outcome, I would also be content that it was the correct outcome.

Close elections should be subject to automatic recounts; up here, the threshold to trigger a mandatory judicial recount in federal elections is a margin of 0.1% of all votes cast in the riding (federally; the standard varies for provincial elections). Personally, I think that margin is too slim and might prefer 0.5% or even 1%, but I certainly think there should be some margin under which a recount is mandatory. (I will note that there are two counts done in federal elections: a provisional election-night count so that results are largely known by the following morning at the latest, and a second official count conducted over the following week or so before candidates are declared elected. It is on the basis of the latter that judicial recounts are triggered. I would also note that under the three standards I have given--the current 0.1%, and the two more expansive standards of 0.5% or 1%--the number of recounts in the previous federal election were or would have been, respectively, 0, 8, and 12.)

If the margin had been, say, 6,000 votes in favour of Lamb, I would be highly critical of Saccone for not conceding and demanding a recount unless he had very convincing evidence that there was a great deal of fuckery going on, and similarly if the roles were reversed. But since the margin is as small as it is, I think he is well justified in not conceding and considering insisting on a recount.

Now, I would also not blame him if he elected not to insist on a recount, even though the margin is such that under the sort of law governing recounts that I would support, one would be triggered automatically in this case. Given that no such provision exists in Pennsylvania law (to my knowledge, anyway), it is ultimately Saccone's choice whether or not to force a recount, and while in his place I would do so, and would so advise him were I in such a position, I can certainly understand the arguments for not doing so, the one I personally find most persuasive being the expense of a recount.

(Note: Here, the costs of a mandatory recount are borne by the state. However, candidates or voters can request a recount, but they must first convince a judge that there are grounds for doing so--candidates are permitted to have observers at polling stations and at vote counting, partly in order that they could collect evidence of possible malfeasance or misinterpretation of ballots in order to challenge an election--and the candidate or voter making such a challenge must then guarantee the costs incurred by whichever candidate ultimately is declared the winner.)

In short, my support of a recount is borne of my desire to ensure that the democratic process plays out fairly and reaches the proper result given the will of the people expressed by the voters through their ballots. Since it is Saccone who will ultimately choose whether a recount will occur, I would not only not blame him for wanting a recount, but--as I noted--advise him to seek one, and, further, would support changes in the law both to require recounts in close elections and to ensure that recounts can be done fully and comprehensively (such as by requiring hand-marked paper ballots).
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 04:17:50 am
I am not concerned by such quibbles, least of all in the favor of a creature like Saccone or Moore and giving them the benefit of a recount. Neither Saccone nor Moore in my view deserve the potential benefit of a recount.

I won't lie, if the beneficiary of a recount would be a Democratic nominee, I would be all for it.

All these legalese files and such you've recounted hold no importance to me. What matters is my ideological friend Conor Lamb won.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on March 15, 2018, 04:43:26 am
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/trump-takes-full-credit-democrats-win-despite-endorsing-losing-gop-candidate-pa-race/ Trump is taking credit for the victory and saying that Lamb is totally supporting him.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 05:02:26 am
Ignorance may be bliss, but it sure is stupid.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on March 15, 2018, 09:05:32 am
.......oh Ryan.  You hitched your star to a falling lead weight.

Ironbite-jesus fucking christ.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on March 15, 2018, 09:13:14 am
Yes of course since the democrat doesn't agree with Nancy Pelosi then of course that automatically means he agrees with Trump.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 11:40:16 am
I am not concerned by such quibbles, least of all in the favor of a creature like Saccone or Moore and giving them the benefit of a recount. Neither Saccone nor Moore in my view deserve the potential benefit of a recount.

I won't lie, if the beneficiary of a recount would be a Democratic nominee, I would be all for it.

All these legalese files and such you've recounted hold no importance to me. What matters is my ideological friend Conor Lamb won.

A perfect example of everything wrong with modern US politics.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Art Vandelay on March 15, 2018, 11:51:32 am
Niam takes great pride in being edgier than thou. Personally, I wouldn't take him especially seriously.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 11:53:35 am
Niam takes great pride in being edgier than thou. Personally, I wouldn't take him especially seriously.

Even if that doesn't reflect his actual views, there are people who hold exactly those views.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 04:15:04 pm
I am not edgier than thou with this. I have shared my exact views on the subject.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 04:56:18 pm
I am not edgier than thou with this. I have shared my exact views on the subject.

I am not concerned by such quibbles, least of all in the favor of a creature like Saccone or Moore and giving them the benefit of a recount. Neither Saccone nor Moore in my view deserve the potential benefit of a recount.

I won't lie, if the beneficiary of a recount would be a Democratic nominee, I would be all for it.

All these legalese files and such you've recounted hold no importance to me. What matters is my ideological friend Conor Lamb won.

A perfect example of everything wrong with modern US politics.

Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 15, 2018, 10:58:17 pm
What, that I completely prioritize victory and screwing over the GOP and their constituents at every turn?

They made every effort to screw over my state, and possibly eliminated my good tax returns going forward.

Yes I am absolutely bitter - when they took money from me I didn't even have yet, that makes every GOP Politician and voter recipient of my resent.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 15, 2018, 11:16:43 pm
What, that I completely prioritize victory and screwing over the GOP and their constituents at every turn?

They made every effort to screw over my state, and possibly eliminated my good tax returns going forward.

Yes I am absolutely bitter - when they took money from me I didn't even have yet, that makes every GOP Politician and voter recipient of my resent.

That you would insist on certain protections (like recounts in narrow elections) for the politicians you support, but insist on their lack when it comes to politicians you oppose.

That's blatant hypocrisy and fundamentally anti-democratic. The US is already, by many measures, no longer a democracy (one need only look at the 2000 and 2016 Presidential elections, or the 1942, 1952, 1996 and 2012 House elections, or the Senate any time the Republicans have controlled that chamber in the last thirty years, or the fact that partisan state Secretaries of State run elections--partisan officials running elections is a major red flag for international elections monitors but seems to go almost completely unremarked when it comes to the US), and making it worse and less democratic just because it happens to serve your own personal agenda and vendettas (however understandable those might be) is not going to fix the underlying problems that led to you being fucked over in the first place--if anything, it will only exacerbate them.

Furthermore, I would note that many Democrats are not all that great themselves: a third of their Senate caucus just voted to go even faster toward the next big financial crash by stripping out pretty much everything good done by Dodd-Frank--18 Democratic Senators voted to do that, and if the Democrats had stood firm against it (they could even have had six or seven defections, but had eighteen!), it would have failed as it required a three-fifths majority. We'll have to see how the House votes on it. Maybe the House Democrats will vote unanimously against it--not that that will matter, of course, since simple majorities are all that is required there to pass legislation.

But that is why people vote Republican--because so many Democrats are just Republican-lite, agreeing with Republicans on many matters, like banking deregulation, where the end result fucks over Americans. (The crash is coming, and then the bankers are going to come to Congress asking for bailout money.) It does no good to elect Democrats if they're going to vote for many of the things the Republicans want to do--and particularly when they support the shitty stuff that will lead you people like you getting the shaft.

That is not to say that Lamb and Saccone were equivalent, or that Jones and Moore were, or that Clinton and Trump were. None of them were equivalent. None of them were even close. But you're still going to get fucked either way as it stands--the Democrats just use lube and maybe don't go in quite as deep.

EDIT: https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/2155

The link to monitor the progress of S. 2155 (the banking deregulation bill).
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on March 17, 2018, 05:38:41 am
(https://i.redditmedia.com/CvO_LIgdJAKy6-pzdrlaCVdjIpnqVd1VIKeT2y5LKfA.jpg?w=481&s=a1805f06e69ed8f2caeea6af9f410973)

Look, Trump's lack of manners and racism are spreading to other GOP members. Let's see if it works for them as well.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 21, 2018, 03:03:35 pm
Conservatives rejoice, for Dan Lipinski, anti-ACA, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights Democrat, has triumphed in his primary.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on March 21, 2018, 03:30:57 pm
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/ex-american-nazi-party-leader-wins-gop-congressional-primary-illinois/

Well... They made their choice.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 21, 2018, 03:36:05 pm
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/ex-american-nazi-party-leader-wins-gop-congressional-primary-illinois/

Well... They made their choice.

"Choice." He was running unopposed, and will now face the aforementioned Rep. Lipinski in November.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Lana Reverse on March 21, 2018, 04:04:47 pm
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/ex-american-nazi-party-leader-wins-gop-congressional-primary-illinois/

Well... They made their choice.

"Choice." He was running unopposed, and will now face the aforementioned Rep. Lipinski in November.

Why was he running unopposed? I'm no politician, but I think getting more votes than a Holocaust denier would be child's play.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 21, 2018, 04:38:51 pm
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/ex-american-nazi-party-leader-wins-gop-congressional-primary-illinois/

Well... They made their choice.

"Choice." He was running unopposed, and will now face the aforementioned Rep. Lipinski in November.

Why was he running unopposed? I'm no politician, but I think getting more votes than a Holocaust denier would be child's play.

No idea. The district has a reputation for having a strong social conservative/Reagan Democrat streak, though, so it might be that there just aren't that many Republicans around to run. Besides, Lipinski shares a lot of views with the GOP (anti-ACA, anti-choice, anti-LGBT...). Even so, he didn't win his primary by much.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on March 21, 2018, 10:12:18 pm
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/ex-american-nazi-party-leader-wins-gop-congressional-primary-illinois/

Well... They made their choice.

I was going to say something like "well, at least he's only formerly a nazi"

But then I read the article.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 22, 2018, 02:26:22 am
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/politics/lamb-saccone-concession/index.html

Eight days after the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district, Republican candidate Rick Saccone has conceded to Democratic candidate Conor Lamb.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on March 22, 2018, 11:54:35 am
20+ point flip.

Ironbite-be nervous GOP.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 22, 2018, 02:29:39 pm
20+ point flip.

Ironbite-be nervous GOP.

They were already plenty nervous straight from the initial reporting. Even if Saccone had won, it would have been just as close (in his favour rather than Lamb's), and that still would not have boded well for upcoming elections.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 28, 2018, 07:42:11 pm
https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/extreme-gerrymandering-2018-midterm

The Democrats may need to win the House popular vote by 11 points (the highest margin since 1982) in 2018 to retake the House.

Granted, it's the Brennan Center, so take that with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on March 28, 2018, 08:39:22 pm
I don't know. Dems are very energized while Repubs aren't. People don't tend to vote when they feel things are good, and I think Alabama and Pennsylavania are good indicators of the direction the country is going.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 28, 2018, 09:09:48 pm
I don't know. Dems are very energized while Repubs aren't. People don't tend to vote when they feel things are good, and I think Alabama and Pennsylavania are good indicators of the direction the country is going.

I'm not saying 11 points is unattainable.

Also, there are a lot of Republican voters who had it drilled into them that voting is a civic duty, and that attitude is less present in Democratic voters.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on March 28, 2018, 10:42:22 pm
Special elections say otherwise.

Ironbite-they lost Alabama.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 28, 2018, 11:02:39 pm
Special elections say otherwise.

Ironbite-they lost Alabama.

Alabama also had a freaking pedophile running for the Republicans.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on March 29, 2018, 01:08:44 am
You have to understand this is difficult for Dpareja. If the Dems do as good as is projected, he can't go on about needing to follow Sanders' example and Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on March 29, 2018, 02:07:47 am
You have to understand this is difficult for Dpareja. If the Dems do as good as is projected, he can't go on about needing to follow Sanders' example and Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

First: Current projected margin for Democrats, 6.8--not enough, if the Brennan Center's projections are correct.

Second: It's still not enough, because the Democrats can't use Congress's Art. 1, Sec. 4 power to redraw their own maps unless they have the Presidency, the House, and a supermajority in the Senate--which last they literally cannot get in this cycle. That means that the same problems that apply for the House in 2018 will apply in 2020 as well.

Third: A lot of Democrats are not, on many issues, that much better than the Republicans. Oh, when it costs them nothing to oppose them (House minority, Senate minority facing reconciliation or similar procedures), they'll do so. But consider the recent banking deregulation bill, where a third of Senate Democrats joined Republicans in voting to loosen regulation on banks with assets of up to $250 billion (which includes some really really big banks)--what's the use of electing Democrats who are, on many issues, going to pass the same policies that Republicans do? You see the same with foreign policy and military spending.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00052
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=2&vote=00053

Republicans are bad. Democrats who are Republican-lite are also bad.

And what you have to remember about the Tea Party is that it worked, insofar as it allowed Republicans to stymie the Democrats for six years and then put them in a position to roll back 15 Obama-era executive orders via the Congressional Review Act (requiring only a simple majority in the Senate), barring further executive changes to such policies and subjecting them to the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, not to mention ripping out the key component of the ACA (itself in origin a Richard Nixon and Heritage Foundation plan, of course) thanks to Roberts only finding the individual mandate constitutional under the Taxation Clause rather than the Commerce Clause.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on March 29, 2018, 04:28:39 am
Unless I'm horribly wrong the thing is that the most "energetic" GOP voters at the moment are the Trump-cult and extreme-right fanatics. That's why Nazis, child molesters and who knows what can get the GOP nomination. The others are tired of all this "winning" and having Trumpgrets.

Meanwhile, because Democrats are currently "losing" their side is more eager to vote to get back in the majority which helps them. They might even vote when their candidate isn't their favourite because at least it is better than the GOP candidate. ...Meanwhile when the GOP voters have to make a choice between "the other team" or "literally the charred bones of Hitler because the Neo-Nazis found them and got them nominated when no one else in the GOP bothered to show up and vote" then they might as well decide to stay home because it is harder for them to justify voting for the GOP candidate.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on April 24, 2018, 08:08:38 pm
Remember: the special election to fill the House seat vacated by Rep. Trent Franks, AZ-8, is today with polls closing shortly (or already).

RCP has Republican candidate Debbie Lesko with an 8 point lead over Democratic candidate Hiral Vyas Tipirneni, but the Cook PVI for AZ-8 is R+13.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on April 24, 2018, 08:42:23 pm
Trump won that district by 21 points btw.

Ironbite-that's not something the GOP wanted to see.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Cloud3514 on April 25, 2018, 01:47:37 am
Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren is facing an opponent who put up an ad that photoshopped a Native American headdress on her head while calling himself a "real Indian" because he is of Indian descent.

Where the fuck did this whole "Pocahontas" thing even come from in the first place?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Eiki-mun on April 25, 2018, 01:48:54 am
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on April 25, 2018, 02:06:10 am
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on April 25, 2018, 02:13:01 am
Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren is facing an opponent who put up an ad that photoshopped a Native American headdress on her head while calling himself a "real Indian" because he is of Indian descent.

Where the fuck did this whole "Pocahontas" thing even come from in the first place?

Trump started it a while back. Its because she's like 1/32 Native American.Republicans claim his is a lie so she could get ahead in academia using affirmative action.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on April 25, 2018, 02:18:06 am
R+6. In a state like Arizona. Which should be R+20 or something.

They sewed the seeds of Trump, and now they shalt reap the whirlwind.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Eiki-mun on April 25, 2018, 02:20:45 am
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.

It makes a lot of sense, when you consider which elections were 6 years ago (2012, Obama election year) and 12 years ago (2006, the last Democratic wave election).
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on April 25, 2018, 03:09:37 am
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.

It makes a lot of sense, when you consider which elections were 6 years ago (2012, Obama election year) and 12 years ago (2006, the last Democratic wave election).

And 2000 (Gore slightly ahead of Bush on popular vote). All after 1994 (Republican Revolution). I know why, I'm just saying, a wave could happen and they still might not take the Senate, and even if they do it's tough to see how they have more than 51 or 52. (Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and Tennessee are probably the only ones they can take, while they could definitely lose Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota.) And they have to find a way to make inroads in 2020 and 2022--not easy to do both--so that any potential crash in 2024 won't kill their majority.

EDIT: https://theintercept.com/2018/04/26/steny-hoyer-audio-levi-tillemann/

Audio of Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), House Minority Whip, talking with a candidate in the Democratic primary in Colorado's 6th Congressional District.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 03, 2018, 04:39:04 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Tolpuddle Martyr on May 03, 2018, 07:11:34 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

Quote
The shift was especially dramatic among young white men, who two years ago favored Democrats but now say they favor Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 46 to 37 percent
The fucking frog people are multiplying!
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Lana Reverse on May 03, 2018, 09:46:39 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

I'm not sure it's the Dems losing millennials so much as it is more members of Generation Z reaching voting age. The poll mentioned in the article appears to be defining millennials by age bracket rather than birth year, which is... not the best definition.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 03, 2018, 03:16:32 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

I'm not sure it's the Dems losing millennials so much as it is more members of Generation Z reaching voting age. The poll mentioned in the article appears to be defining millennials by age bracket rather than birth year, which is... not the best definition.

It's still not great news for Democrats.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on May 04, 2018, 03:24:19 am
Any ideas on how they can be flipped back away from the republicans?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on May 04, 2018, 04:09:25 am
Keep in mind, these are the numbers now, in May, and many of these races are months away.

There absolutely should be youth outreach, but this is far from the end of the world. We are seeing a lot of energy against Trump and the Republicans, and areas they won handily are suddenly looking a lot shakier.

Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 25, 2018, 10:20:12 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: The_Queen on May 26, 2018, 01:44:01 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.

Oh give it up Bernie Bro. Albright said that statement to make the point that Hillary, because her support for women's causes over a 30 year career was "going to the White House, and the other place" as Albright point to the sky.

You got what you wanted, Clinton lost. However, I won't hold my breath for the second part of your prediction: that a Trump presidency will bring about liberal policies quicker.

Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on May 26, 2018, 03:57:42 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.

ANd as usual, Dpareja will bring up any action by Clinton taken - you're actually remarkably like Fox News in that regard.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 26, 2018, 04:13:53 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.

ANd as usual, Dpareja will bring up any action by Clinton taken - you're actually remarkably like Fox News in that regard.

FOX News brings up Clinton because it energizes the Republican base because they hate Hillary Clinton. I bring up Clinton because I think her continued presence on the political stage is harmful to the Democratic Party.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on May 26, 2018, 05:27:26 pm
So you're just like Faux Noise then.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 26, 2018, 07:33:43 pm
So you're just like Faux Noise then.

No, because they want to harm the Democratic Party, and I want to see the Democrats succeed.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on May 26, 2018, 07:40:19 pm
So you're just like Faux Noise then.

No, because they want to harm the Democratic Party, and I want to see the Democrats led by Bernie Sanders succeed.

FTFY.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 26, 2018, 07:46:58 pm
So you're just like Faux Noise then.

No, because they want to harm the Democratic Party, and I want to see the Democrats led by Bernie Sanders succeed.

FTFY.

No, I want to see the Democrats succeed, if for no other reason than that Duverger's Law means that they are the only really viable alternative to the disastrous monster that is the Republican Party. I also happen to think that they'd have a much better chance of success if they followed Sanders' platform, given how popular most of its provisions are with the electorate.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: The_Queen on May 26, 2018, 07:56:39 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.

ANd as usual, Dpareja will bring up any action by Clinton taken - you're actually remarkably like Fox News in that regard.

FOX News brings up Clinton because it energizes the Republican base because they hate Hillary Clinton. I bring up Clinton because I think her continued presence on the political stage is harmful to the Democratic Party.

Yeah, that's the reason. [/100% Sarcasm]
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Lana Reverse on May 26, 2018, 08:10:03 pm
Would you please stop picking on him?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on May 26, 2018, 08:50:45 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTfj44RnqRE

Hillary Clinton has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic gubernatorial primary over Cynthia Nixon.

I seem to recall a speaker at an event for Clinton saying something about a special place in hell for women who don't help other women.

ANd as usual, Dpareja will bring up any action by Clinton taken - you're actually remarkably like Fox News in that regard.

FOX News brings up Clinton because it energizes the Republican base because they hate Hillary Clinton. I bring up Clinton because I think her continued presence on the political stage is harmful to the Democratic Party.

Yeah, that's the reason. [/100% Sarcasm]

Yes, it's not possible for there to be any policy-based reason, like supporting DOMA or voting for the PATRIOT Act or the Iraq War, that one might think Hillary Clinton's continued presence on the political stage is a detriment to the Democratic Party.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on May 26, 2018, 11:52:51 pm
I see you Dpareja as someone who upholds extreme purity tests - that someone cannot possibly change their beliefs, because SURELY everyone is as extremely devoted as you are to your beliefs.

If I end up pulling an Ahnold and trying for politics after acting and bodybuilding, I see you as someone who will shout "he was a REPUBLICAN in high school! He is ideologically impure!"

Hillary was brought to nomination by voices of color and people across affiliations.

The fact she drew some Republicans to her is a black spot when others see it as a good point in your eyes, isn't it?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on May 29, 2018, 03:43:42 am
People can obviously change, but I don't blame people like dp (and essentially fully agree in the case of Clinton) for not trusting big name politicians. Bernie's been in it a long time but he's always been an underdog that the corporate owned wing of the democrats never were fond of and its only really recently that the youth and left-leaning populist movement he was a part of started gaining any real traction again. Clinton has been near the top of the corporate democrat ladder for the better part of two decades or so (about as long as I've been alive, if not slightly longer) and when she tried to reach out it felt hollow and out of touch for a lot of the so-called "Bernie Bros" (a surprising amount of which were women, several of whom are trans women, something the media and a lot of diehard Hillary people wouldn't really talk about) felt that she would essentially do what Trump's been doing to his base and backtracking on a lot of campaign promises that were designed by the focus group committees in order to draw the demographics votes in.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on June 02, 2018, 02:20:43 pm
Just going to say, niam, that if you really do think Sanders' continued presence on the political stage and his popularity is a detriment to the Democratic Party, I encourage you to support Folasade Adeluola (http://www.folasadeadeluola.com/), his opponent in Vermont's Democratic Senate primary this August. While he might still run as an Independent even if he loses that primary, it would put him in a three-way race, which he would be more likely to lose, and should Ms. Adeluola defeat him (or even get a significant percentage of the vote) in the Democratic primary, it would send a message that he is not as popular among Vermont Democrats as he or anyone else would have us believe.

That said, I find it unlikely that he would lose, either in that primary or even in a three-way general election race, since he is consistently voted the most popular Senator when residents of the various states are polled concerning their Senators (and Sen. Leahy is almost always in the top ten), but if you really feel he should be repudiated by Vermont Democrats and, if possible, removed from the Senate, I would encourage you to support Ms. Adeluola's candidacy.

EDIT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cSau9Nu_tw

Vulnerable Republican House incumbents (such as in California, where there are seven House districts with a Republican representative that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016) are attacking their Democratic opponents for supporting "socialized health care".
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on June 27, 2018, 02:42:19 pm
The number-four Democrat in the House, Joe Crowley (NY 14th) has lost in the Democratic primary to a progressive challenger, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Crowley will still appear on the general election ballot as the candidate for the Women's Equality and Working Families parties.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on June 27, 2018, 03:28:08 pm
I hadn't heard he was still in the running.

Ironbite-but he accepted his loss pretty graciously.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on June 27, 2018, 03:39:11 pm
I hadn't heard he was still in the running.

Ironbite-but he accepted his loss pretty graciously.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/NY

The Green Papers has him as the Working Families and Women's Equality candidate.

Makes me wonder if the DCCC will support him or the Democratic candidate, though.

EDIT: Also Ben Jealous, a former President of the NAACP, is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maryland.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on June 28, 2018, 12:03:31 am
Saw a video on youtube about Ocasio-Cortez's campaign ads and glad she's in for the democrats. Making the party more grassroots will certainly be bringing back disaffected Bernie voters who left or abstained from voting after Hillary was put on the Dem ticket for Pres.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 02, 2018, 07:27:26 pm
In what may be (yet another) harbinger for world politics, a populist left candidate just won the Presidential election in Mexico... by a landslide.

In a four-way race, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has, with a little over 75% of the votes counted, roughly 53% of all votes cast. The President of Mexico is elected by a simple popular plurality, however the last time a Presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote was in 1988, with Carlos Salinas de Gortari receiving 50.7% in one of the last elections during the PRI's iron grip on power (1994 would see the PRI candidate drop below 50%; 2000 had PAN's Vicente Fox win with ~43% of the vote).

Apparently, the other candidates called to concede to Obrador within an hour of the polls closing, a record for contested Presidential elections in Mexico.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 02, 2018, 09:19:12 pm
I think John Oliver was kind of critical of Obrador given his coalition included some far right parties.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 02, 2018, 09:23:40 pm
I think John Oliver was kind of critical of Obrador given his coalition included some far right parties.

Yeah, that's problematic. (I think his coalition was his own party, the Labor Party, and a far-right party.) We'll have to see how he governs.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 10, 2018, 04:13:54 am
Meanwhile, there's two Senate special elections on November 6, Minnesota and Mississippi:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/MN
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G18/MS

Might there be a chance of picking off one of Mississippi's two? (I think Mississippi is only R+9, so with enough of a wave it's not too unbelievable.)
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on July 10, 2018, 05:58:48 am
Miss is within the realm of possibility. Minn is more likely to go blue overall. But we can hope for the best that both swing that way.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 10, 2018, 12:04:24 pm
Miss is within the realm of possibility. Minn is more likely to go blue overall. But we can hope for the best that both swing that way.

In Minnesota, Klobuchar is very likely to be reelected; Smith is considered the more vulnerable.

Mississippi's interesting, though: for the special election, party affiliation isn't listed (in the jungle primary or the runoff), which could make the election more about the policies than the parties. I don't think both can be taken, but the Dems could well knock off Hyde-Smith because of that.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: The_Queen on July 10, 2018, 08:30:33 pm
In what may be (yet another) harbinger for world politics, a populist left candidate just won the Presidential election in Mexico... by a landslide.

In a four-way race, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has, with a little over 75% of the votes counted, roughly 53% of all votes cast. The President of Mexico is elected by a simple popular plurality, however the last time a Presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote was in 1988, with Carlos Salinas de Gortari receiving 50.7% in one of the last elections during the PRI's iron grip on power (1994 would see the PRI candidate drop below 50%; 2000 had PAN's Vicente Fox win with ~43% of the vote).

Apparently, the other candidates called to concede to Obrador within an hour of the polls closing, a record for contested Presidential elections in Mexico.

He's being called the Mexican Donald Trump. He's pretty blase about any real policy.

Edit to Clarify: He got the far-right and labour parties on board by telling both sides what they wanted to hear. Kind like who Donald Trump said that he would appoint justices to overturn the disastrous same-sex marriage decision when in republican circles and then fashion himself a defender of LGBTQ rights when it would resonate better with the audience. He's a wild-card at best, but will probably wind up falling to the left based on MRN's success. But, if another coalition looks more attractive, watch out.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 10, 2018, 08:49:08 pm
In what may be (yet another) harbinger for world politics, a populist left candidate just won the Presidential election in Mexico... by a landslide.

In a four-way race, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has, with a little over 75% of the votes counted, roughly 53% of all votes cast. The President of Mexico is elected by a simple popular plurality, however the last time a Presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote was in 1988, with Carlos Salinas de Gortari receiving 50.7% in one of the last elections during the PRI's iron grip on power (1994 would see the PRI candidate drop below 50%; 2000 had PAN's Vicente Fox win with ~43% of the vote).

Apparently, the other candidates called to concede to Obrador within an hour of the polls closing, a record for contested Presidential elections in Mexico.

He's being called the Mexican Donald Trump. He's pretty blase about any real policy.

Though, unlike Trump, he got an actual popular majority in a real four-way race.

But that aside, we'll have to wait and see--just like with any elected leaders.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: The_Queen on July 10, 2018, 08:53:28 pm
In what may be (yet another) harbinger for world politics, a populist left candidate just won the Presidential election in Mexico... by a landslide.

In a four-way race, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has, with a little over 75% of the votes counted, roughly 53% of all votes cast. The President of Mexico is elected by a simple popular plurality, however the last time a Presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote was in 1988, with Carlos Salinas de Gortari receiving 50.7% in one of the last elections during the PRI's iron grip on power (1994 would see the PRI candidate drop below 50%; 2000 had PAN's Vicente Fox win with ~43% of the vote).

Apparently, the other candidates called to concede to Obrador within an hour of the polls closing, a record for contested Presidential elections in Mexico.

He's being called the Mexican Donald Trump. He's pretty blase about any real policy.

Though, unlike Trump, he got an actual popular majority in a real four-way race.

But that aside, we'll have to wait and see--just like with any elected leaders.

Oh wow, some difference a majority vote fucking makes. I say "he's blase about policy positions" and you retort about vote share? Total non-sequitur.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 13, 2018, 12:36:15 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/12/politics/ocasio-cortez-worries-joe-crowley-third-party-run/index.html

There is some fear that Joe Crowley may be trying to retain his seat in Congress after his Democratic primary loss to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, because he's listed on the ballot on other lines.

To be clear: he has every right to do this and the blame lies with the other parties that endorsed him, and I'd be shocked if there was enough GOP support in that district that a vote split could see their candidate win.

It just has that feeling of scumminess that makes a lot of people hate the Democratic establishment.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 27, 2018, 01:16:53 pm
https://www.fireyourcongressman.com/SitePages/HomePage.aspx

If you hate a Congressperson, here's a PAC seeking to support challengers to Congressional incumbents.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on July 27, 2018, 06:24:54 pm
Unfortunately due to the strong economy I have a feeling there isn't going to be a huge democratic congressional gain this fall compared to what people are predicting.
It's really sad that people will overlook all the bullshit if they perceive the economy is doing well which is something that Trump doesn't have a lot of control over anyways
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on July 27, 2018, 06:31:51 pm
Heh...strong economy.

Ironbite-suuuuuuure it is.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on July 27, 2018, 07:12:25 pm
The economy is doing really well right now and that will probably matter come November.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on July 27, 2018, 08:38:23 pm
Yeah I'm sure it will.\

And the Orange Piss Pot will have done something else to piss off the voter base and get them riled up or Mueller's report comes out.

Ironbite-other factors come in other then the economy right now.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on July 27, 2018, 08:42:54 pm
His wanting to meet with Putin in the fall will clearly be a negative against him since a majority of Americans don't like his relationship he has with him. It's probably why they're trying to push Putin's visit until next year to ruin the backlash that will create.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on July 27, 2018, 08:55:33 pm
And Putin fucked that up by inviting Trump to Russia.  On purpose mind.

Ironbite-because what Putin wants is a very divided America and a Blue Wave will give that to him.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 27, 2018, 10:46:23 pm
Between financial deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs (the retaliatory ones disproportionately targeting vulnerable House Republicans), the crash is coming. It's just a matter of whether it comes before or after November.

The "strength" right now is completely fake. It's a bubble, like the dot-com bubble or the housing market in 2006-2007 (when Trump said it was a great time to start a mortgage company).

EDIT: https://scholar.harvard.edu/levitsky/files/1.1linz.pdf

As Linz noted, the apparent stability of the US political system is actually a dangerous rigidity hiding turbulent instability, leaving it unable to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 28, 2018, 12:22:01 am
Meaning when the bubble bursts the people most hurt will be...oh, that's darling, it'll be the people in red states who seem to be benefiting at present the most. I have to wonder just what kind of number this is gonna do on Trump's supporters? I mean, considering belief in him is an opiate to these masses, and they were on copious amounts of opiates to begin with...
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 28, 2018, 12:23:47 am
Meaning when the bubble bursts the people most hurt will be...oh, that's darling, it'll be the people in red states who seem to be benefiting at present the most. I have to wonder just what kind of number this is gonna do on Trump's supporters? I mean, considering belief in him is an opiate to these masses, and they were on copious amounts of opiates to begin with...

Don't worry, they'll vote Republican again because Democrats are God-hating, gay-loving, gun-stealing, abortion-forcing big-city-types who don't know jack shit about real 'Murica.

EDIT: How to argue against Trump's economy.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DioPXF1WkAAf972.jpg:large)

That's wage changes in real terms. Take note that it was already bad with Obama's economic policies in place, though wages were recovering. However, notice the substantial drop (as wages were increasing in real terms, though still well below their 2006 levels) at Q1 2018--right when the GOP tax bill came into effect, giving the rich and corporations massive tax cuts and everyone else little to nothing, particularly punishing Democratic-leaning states for wanting to provide things for their residents by removing the SALT deduction (up here, I've always heard that conservatives hated double taxation, though that they don't was made clear when a bunch of conservatives conned people into killing a provincial value-added tax and forced my province to revert to a sales tax that gets heaped on at every step of the supply chain and amounts to paying tax on tax--oh, and put the provincial government another billion or so dollars in the hole because they were required to repay a federal transfer that they had received in exchange for switching from the sales tax to the value-added one) and effectively being reparations to the rich for the "crime" of the New Deal.

But once those tax cuts came into effect and this really did become the Trump/Ryan economy... that change-in-real-wages statistic dropped significantly.

Those tax "cuts" did not help regular people. Regular people, as always, got shafted.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 29, 2018, 02:51:38 am
And considering Trump's (lack of) action on the Opioid crisis, combined with how hard this'll hit the "always vote Republican" types...
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 29, 2018, 03:34:29 am
And considering Trump's (lack of) action on the Opioid crisis, combined with how hard this'll hit the "always vote Republican" types...

God, guns, gays, and babies.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 29, 2018, 04:00:04 am
I don't mean whether they'll turn over a new electoral leaf. I mean, we might see a lot of Trump's more blue collar supporters shuffle off the earthly coil.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 29, 2018, 04:26:21 am
I don't mean whether they'll turn over a new electoral leaf. I mean, we might see a lot of Trump's more blue collar supporters shuffle off the earthly coil.

Not before the midterms, but there is some speculation that the Senate hasn't acted on the opioid crisis to any great extent because McConnell doesn't want to give Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly something they can call a win.

If I were the Democrats, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that the Republicans are blocking action on opioids.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 29, 2018, 04:40:09 am
So the economy won't devour those idiotic hicks alive before they're allowed to vote again...

At least in as far as things going wrong for the Republicans, we always have our cartoonish President spouting off, Sacha Baron Cohen making utter fools out of sitting and previously sitting officials, and the fruits of Mueller.

And the history that shows an unpopular President is oft doomed to see one or both Houses of Congress flee from the grips of his Party at midterm time.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: The_Queen on July 29, 2018, 12:39:14 pm
I don't mean whether they'll turn over a new electoral leaf. I mean, we might see a lot of Trump's more blue collar supporters shuffle off the earthly coil.

Not before the midterms, but there is some speculation that the Senate hasn't acted on the opioid crisis to any great extent because McConnell doesn't want to give Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly something they can call a win.

If I were the Democrats, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that the Republicans are blocking action on opioids.

If you were the democrats, the GOP would have a super majority right now.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 29, 2018, 03:52:47 pm
I don't mean whether they'll turn over a new electoral leaf. I mean, we might see a lot of Trump's more blue collar supporters shuffle off the earthly coil.

Not before the midterms, but there is some speculation that the Senate hasn't acted on the opioid crisis to any great extent because McConnell doesn't want to give Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly something they can call a win.

If I were the Democrats, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that the Republicans are blocking action on opioids.

If you were the democrats, the GOP would have a super majority right now.

Because I can read policy polls?

I've also heard speculation that Trump is trying to start a war with Iran because he saw that Bush was able to break the pattern by getting the public whipped up into a patriotic war frenzy.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on July 29, 2018, 04:11:50 pm
The difference being that Bush had 9/11 whip up the whole country into a patriotic frenzy. And nearly 80 percent approval. They probably could've justified attacking any country as long as they mentioned 9/11 Osama bin laden, al queada or WMDs. Trump doesn't have that like at all.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on July 29, 2018, 04:58:27 pm
The difference being that Bush had 9/11 whip up the whole country into a patriotic frenzy. And nearly 80 percent approval. They probably could've justified attacking any country as long as they mentioned 9/11 Osama bin laden, al queada or WMDs. Trump doesn't have that like at all.

Exactly. He wants to do what Bush did--start a war, get everyone behind him--but he's too incompetent to draw a line between Iran and something that Americans really do care about.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on July 31, 2018, 03:25:38 am
I don't mean whether they'll turn over a new electoral leaf. I mean, we might see a lot of Trump's more blue collar supporters shuffle off the earthly coil.

Not before the midterms, but there is some speculation that the Senate hasn't acted on the opioid crisis to any great extent because McConnell doesn't want to give Manchin, McCaskill, and Donnelly something they can call a win.

If I were the Democrats, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that the Republicans are blocking action on opioids.

If you were the democrats, the GOP would have a super majority right now.

You don't know that at all. If we're going to play super divisive democrat infighting then "your side" (and judging from your posts thats pretty pro-Hillary Clinton) then "your side" being in charge and not having a good strategy led to the current administration and everything they have been doing.

By this point I'm rather sick of division but I can be a bitch about politics too if I'm in a foul mood.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on July 31, 2018, 03:32:00 am
Oh by all means we should operate more closely, but I would daresay it is more the province of Our Revolution and their friends such as The Young Turks and the like to put candidates through rigorous purity testing, and if they took the wrong money from the wrong people, then they are not True Progressives and not worthy of trust.

I've lost count how many hit files I've seen go up on the TYT youtube channel...
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on August 04, 2018, 05:26:31 am
I have a pretty low count since I don't even watch the young turks that much. I can't tolerate Cenk and don't want to give him clicks because of the whole Armenian genocide thing.

Funny thing is some right wing fundie in the yahoo comments section once told me I was a dumb libtard that watched too much TYT. This was like 7 years ago and I was like 13 and had never heard of them before.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: SCarpelan on August 04, 2018, 09:34:54 am
I have a pretty low count since I don't even watch the young turks that much. I can't tolerate Cenk and don't want to give him clicks because of the whole Armenian genocide thing.

This is not an opinion of a TYT fanboy; I see them as an overrated and flawed organization that despite its flaws still has a positive effect as a whole. Cenk especially is in many ways an annoying dumbass but the Armenian genocide denial is at this point a pure smear. He has acknowledged that it happened and admitted having been ignorant about the issue but that doesn't prevent trolls from bringing it up constantly.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on August 05, 2018, 05:22:59 am
It's still pretty awkward considering he still never changed the name even after acknowledging it. Because the Young Turks (the original ones) were the people responsible for that. I get that the channel is known as TYT but re-branding shouldn't be too much of a problem considering they have like a million or more subscribers who would understand why a name change was sorely needed.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on August 09, 2018, 01:02:55 am
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/the-radical-lefts-agenda-is-more-popular-than-the-gops.html
https://www.dataforprogress.org/polling-the-left-agenda/

Apparently, the agenda of the "Radical Left" is pretty darned popular.

At least, according to a survey done by YouGov Blue commissioned by Data for Progress, so make of that what you will.

I'd love to see this repeated by other organizations to see what the results would be.

EDIT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_EGrVZ_cWQ

Kyle Kulinski is a racist and a sexist.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on August 13, 2018, 09:22:47 pm
How?

Ironbite-love to see this.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on August 13, 2018, 10:16:10 pm
How?

Ironbite-love to see this.

How what?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on August 14, 2018, 09:31:15 am
You made an accusation, back it up.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on August 14, 2018, 10:20:45 am
You made an accusation, back it up.

What accusation? The one about Kulinski being racist and sexist? I'm practically quoting him; watch the video.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on August 15, 2018, 03:51:44 am
Identity Politics has been used by the establishment to divide and diminish the other ideas on the left.

I see nothing sexist or racist in the video. McFeminism legitimately is just pandering garbage covering up harmful and corrupt governments and corporations.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on August 15, 2018, 03:59:02 am
Identity Politics has been used by the establishment to divide and diminish the other ideas on the left.

I see nothing sexist or racist in the video. McFeminism legitimately is just pandering garbage covering up harmful and corrupt governments and corporations.

Agreed.

But then I agree with Queen at least insofar as trusting those who read my posts to tell when I'm being serious and when I'm being tongue-in-cheek. I think my views are, to quote Hitchens, "tolerably well-advertised".

EDIT: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-progressives/#interactives-poll

There's an interesting poll about support for, particularly, single-payer health insurance in the US: even a majority of Republicans support it.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 01, 2018, 05:26:26 pm
https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-republicans-preparation-investigations-180abf7b-0de8-4670-ae8a-2e6da123c584.html

Congressional Republicans are really, really worried about all the investigations Democrats could do if they retake the House; not just of Trump and the administration, but of them, too. (For instance, why are they blockading election security measures?)

https://www.dailywire.com/news/35164/senate-fast-tracks-trumps-judicial-nominees-dems-hank-berrien

On the other hand, the Democrats appear to have traded eleven appointments (including seven lifetime federal district court seats) for 85,000 pages on Brett Kavanaugh.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 21, 2018, 06:51:15 pm
Quote
Ruth Bader Ginsburg came out saying she was groped by Abraham Lincoln.

--Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC 5th), during a debate in his district for his re-election campaign, when asked about Dr. Ford's accusations of attempted rape against Judge Kavanaugh.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on September 21, 2018, 06:54:39 pm
TRUMP'S SENILITY IS SO BAD ITS INFECTIOUS!
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on September 21, 2018, 07:38:57 pm
They're really not trying to win over women voters are they?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 21, 2018, 07:54:24 pm
Oh, and the NRA is running out of money.

Thoughts and prayers, everyone!
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on September 21, 2018, 08:15:00 pm
You mean Russia stopped cutting them checks?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 21, 2018, 08:47:09 pm
You mean Russia stopped cutting them checks?

They're being investigated in NY over exactly that.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: RavynousHunter on September 21, 2018, 09:07:19 pm
I'm surprised they aren't raking in ad revenue from Remington et al thru NRA TV.  You mean to tell me that horribly-prepared knockoffs of other networks' shows, many of whom are tinged with equal amounts paranoia and utter insanity, don't draw ad bucks like flies to shit?
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 21, 2018, 10:16:42 pm
To some extent they're victims of their own success.

First, let's note that the NRA's positions are out of sync with the positions of NRA members, such as on background checks--NRA members support expanding them, the NRA opposes expansion. So they may be bleeding members over that.

But more importantly, mass shootings are the NRA's bread and butter--they're a lobby group for gun manufacturers, not gun owners, remember. Every time there's a mass shooting, the NRA puts out fearmongering about how the government's going to take your guns, and people get scared and buy more guns, which makes the gun makers richer. But there've been so many mass shootings, and so much inaction (except sometimes in states run by Republicans, where they end up loosening gun restrictions, I guess because they were stopping all those good guys from getting guns), that now people see a mass shooting and don't think that the government is going to take their guns, since the fact pattern is established that the government won't do that. Hence mass shootings no longer make money for the gun manufacturers the way they used to, and hence the NRA doesn't get as much money from said companies.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on September 21, 2018, 11:36:24 pm
Thoughts and prayers, gentlemen, thoughts and prayers.

Also, the fact Rod Rosenstein needed to come out and so stringently deny the 25th Amendment Allegation probably says something.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 21, 2018, 11:44:49 pm
Rosenstein's going to be gone very, very soon.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on September 22, 2018, 12:51:04 am
...Would Trump dare get rid of him?

That would be tantamount to implicating himself even further and let Mueller do so much more.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Skybison on September 22, 2018, 01:56:35 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZuayQFD51w

Thanksgiving is going to be awkward at the Gosar place.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 22, 2018, 02:16:28 am
...Would Trump dare get rid of him?

That would be tantamount to implicating himself even further and let Mueller do so much more.

He needs some pretext for getting rid of him, and this provides it.

Meanwhile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efTm9eZ1qvM

Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Beto O'Rourke debate.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on September 22, 2018, 03:43:09 am
The Curator's corner show in NRA TV is worth watching but that's about it.


And even in that one some of the "famous guns" are stuff like "one of the many guns Ted Nugent owned" so it's a bit of a hit and miss.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on September 23, 2018, 05:42:12 am
I wouldn't be shocked if they're bleeding support. My dad used to get their newsletter years and years ago, and even back then they got annoying begging for money all the time and making boneheaded decisions on what to push for. I can only imagine it's happening more now because they've clearly been getting worse as time progresses.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Askold on September 23, 2018, 06:51:41 am
They've had so much money coming in from corporations and Russia that there was no need to care about their members.

They still have the crazies on their side but now they are being investigated for the Russian money and the corporations can't unload all their guns on people because the president isn't a "CRAZY GUN-GRABBER DEMONCRAT" so they can't really use NRA to scare people into stockpiling guns either. Their main sources of income are in jeopardy and they can't really get money from members...
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on September 28, 2018, 02:37:21 am
538 put its House forecast up in mid-August; when it went up, IIRC they had the Democrats at 70% to take the House. Now it's over 80%.

The Senate forecast went up just two weeks ago; when it went up they had the Democrats--looking at the worst map in Senate history--at a 30% chance of taking control, and it's been creeping up since, being now at 32%.

I hope they can keep that momentum going into 2020 and hopefully 2022.

EDIT: And these have dropped to around 77% and 29% as of mid-afternoon PDT on October 2.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on October 02, 2018, 08:24:46 pm
Best cancel midterm plans for the Democrats then.  We're not taking back anything and in fact the GOP is gonna just steam roll over everything, get a super majority and install the Trump family as puppet rulers of America forever and ever amen.

Ironbite-until, we all die in 2030 from a Super flu outbreak.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on October 02, 2018, 09:40:50 pm
Best cancel midterm plans for the Democrats then.  We're not taking back anything and in fact the GOP is gonna just steam roll over everything, get a super majority and install the Trump family as puppet rulers of America forever and ever amen.

Ironbite-until, we all die in 2030 from a Super flu outbreak.

They're still ridiculously high for a Senate map that's the most tilted against one party in US history, and a House map that's more gerrymandered than at any time in US history. I was just noting that they'd slipped, that's all.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: ironbite on October 03, 2018, 06:38:05 am
Nope best let the GOP continue destroying unopposed.  It's the only way
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on October 03, 2018, 01:50:51 pm
http://theweek.com/articles/799408/how-democratic-party-idiocy-may-cost-senate

Well, what could also do it is that Robert Menendez could very well lose in New Jersey.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on October 03, 2018, 02:44:47 pm
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: davedan on October 03, 2018, 07:04:59 pm
It should be fucking the republicans. But again you will see women vote for the party that promotes sex offenders.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on October 04, 2018, 03:26:58 am
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.

I thought so too until I started looking into it, and now I hope that people choose to have the sense to fuck over the republicans for it, because that dude's looking pretty guilty.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on October 04, 2018, 05:02:53 pm
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.

My suspicion is that while it might generically help the Democrats (since the public at large is more opposed to Kavanaugh than not), it's not helping them in the places where they need to win, like House districts that lean slightly Republican or, for the Senate, states like North Dakota where there is (so Nate Silver claims, anyway, without providing a link) a majority in favour of confirming Kavanaugh.

Plus, especially with the Senate, those national polls are going to poll a lot of people from places like California (where a Democratic candidate is absolutely guaranteed to win) and New York (where Gillibrand is almost certain to win), and far fewer people from places like Montana, North Dakota, or West Virginia, which are seats the Democrats really need to hold and where a pro-Kavanaugh tilt won't much impact the national result.

EDIT: Meanwhile, in a recent campaign ad, a Democratic candidate for the House literally gave out his cell phone number. (I won't say who because of forum anti-doxxing rules.)

EDIT #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msgjzWvniNs

Investigative reporter Greg Palast on how US elections have been--and are still being--stolen.

It's not the Russians, folks.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Eiki-mun on October 17, 2018, 12:35:42 am
(https://i.imgur.com/nYZb3b9.png)

Apparently the Kavanaugh thing isn't hurting Democrats in the house quite as much as people thought. Or at all.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/)
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on October 17, 2018, 12:37:54 am
But it is in the Senate, because there they have to hold seats in states where, contrary to national opinion (largely dictated by populous states), confirming Kavanaugh was popular. Heitkamp in particular is in tough.

EDIT: And as a result, "Extreme Makeover: Judiciary Edition" may well get another two years.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: niam2023 on October 17, 2018, 12:59:41 am
Well, I can still hope Kavanaugh chokes on something.

I've seen a lot of stories and online roleplays suddenly use a lot of evil jocks named Brett lately.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: Id82 on October 17, 2018, 01:22:53 am
It's unfortunate that a large portion of senate races that could make a difference this time around are being held in red states. The Kavannaugh thing just emboldened voters in those areas. I'm predicting Trump will win again in 2020 unfortnately, because the only thing that's really going to stop him is a tanked economy or if Mueller actually comes out with some damning evidence. And there's no one that exciting that I can see leading the Democratic party for 2020. I think some seats in the house will be lost in 2020, but not enough to flip and then the GOP will lose the Senate in 2022. Trump fatigue will kick in, his supporters will turn on him as he fails to really accomplish anything in his second term and the economy most likely heads towards collapse. The GOP will fail to put up someone as exciting as Trump in 2024 and a democratic candidate that no one can predict right now will win the presidency. Most likely a woman as the Me Too movement grows even stronger.
Title: Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
Post by: dpareja on October 18, 2018, 03:36:17 pm
Race to watch: West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district.

Trump won it by forty-nine points.

The Cook PVI on the district is R+23.

The Democratic candidate is running a hard populist left, anti-corruption campaign--one of his ads (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jes9of0S4uM) called out both Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell as having sold out West Virginians. Another (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofh_QHho_qA) specifically shamed his opponent by name for attacking his military record when he's a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan and she's a millionaire.

The polling in the district is a statistical dead heat. (538's Lite--polls-only--forecast has it as a toss-up.)

If that can flip a district that's R+23, that can work anywhere.