Author Topic: China threatens war against the Philippines  (Read 3871 times)

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Offline Fpqxz

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China threatens war against the Philippines
« on: May 10, 2012, 04:18:03 pm »
BBC News Asia:  China bangs the war drum over South China Sea

The People's Republic of China is continuing its imperialistic saber-rattling against the Philippines, over a bunch of islands in the South China Sea.

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The odd thing here is that the Philippine navy consists of just one proper ship and that is an ancient US Coast Guard cutter which is hardly a match for China's navy, as this online commentary by "The Comparativist" makes clear.

The Comparativist writes: "I think this is happening because the Philippines is so weak. The Chinese government can beat the war drums all they want, and as loud as they want, and no war is going to happen. It's akin to bullying someone in a wheelchair that you know can't punch back."

Well, I suppose it's unfair to blame China for doing what the USA and European powers have been doing for centuries--building up their economies, and then intimidating everyone around them.  We should have seen this coming.  The problem is, if China actually does attack the Philippines, the USA and probably also Australia will step in to defend them, which would be a really nasty war.
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Offline Old Viking

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2012, 04:29:47 pm »
Next week's cause for panic will be the incursions of the Irish Navy into Swiss waters.
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Offline Lt. Fred

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2012, 04:47:50 pm »
The Spratlys; also claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan (!), Malaysia, Brunei. Unsurprisingly, they have oil. There has already a war over the islands (between 'Nam and China, in '78, started by China, finishing in a draw).
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Offline largeham

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2012, 07:01:40 pm »
Maybe China is trying to buy time? Any war between the US and China would hurt both of them, but at this point China will lose.

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Offline Meshakhad

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2012, 07:04:36 pm »
I think I read this in a Tom Clancy novel. No, seriously: SSN, by Tom Clancy. It's about the Chinese taking over the Spratlys, only for one US submarine to chew their navy up and spit it out.
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Offline Osama bin Bambi

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2012, 07:25:44 pm »
Next week's cause for panic will be the incursions of the Irish Navy into Swiss waters.

Also, Brazil's going to war with Madagascar.

... yeah I read the thread title and went WTF?
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Offline gyeonghwa

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2012, 07:40:53 pm »
I'm kinda curious if they aren't still a bit sour for not winning their territorial dispute with Vietnam.
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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2012, 10:41:23 pm »
Nothing will come of this. This Philippines are allied with the US, there's no way the Chinese are stupid enough to start an offensive war when the US is on the other side. They simply wouldn't stand a chance.

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2012, 10:57:05 pm »
Oh they'd probably threaten economic repercussions but that'd fuck them over too.

Ironbite-they're kinda in a lose lose here.

Offline Sylvana

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2012, 03:08:05 am »
Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?

China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.

China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.

Offline Yla

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2012, 03:49:18 am »
Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?

China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.

China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
Now just wait a minute. Repressing dissidents and political activists in the homeland doesn't translate to the army rapemurdering everybody on sight. Especially if the whole world would be watching.

Not to mention that as several people pointed out already, a full-out war with the Phillippines has a certain likelihood to draw in the US and others, so China won't risk that for just some island.
The Philippines are no threat to the Chinese navy, so for China it's saber-rattling with low risk for the situation to get out of control.
That said, I've stopped trying to anticipate what people around here want a while ago, I've found it makes things smoother.
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Offline largeham

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2012, 03:54:20 am »
China is a land power, it's navy is almost non-existent (compared to the American and even Russian navies), it cannot reach American soil while America has access to most (all?) of China's centre's of power. A million soldiers helps, but what point is there if their technology is outdated?

Also, China is undergoing huge levels of internal industrial unrest. It is possible that if China went to war, the stress could spark widespread revolt.

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2012, 04:18:03 am »
Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?

China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.

China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
Fat load of good those soldiers will do against the Americans. A relatively tiny and outdated air force and navy on China's part will mean those million soldiers would be doomed as soon as they leave the harbour. When fighting over a few islands, air and naval superiority are rather important.

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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2012, 06:48:49 am »
Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?

China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.

China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.

I pointed out before that China failed with Vietnam, so numbers doesn't necessarily mean strength. And as everyone else pointed out, their equipment is largely outdated compared to ours. Furthermore, if they try anything I bet dollars to doughnuts that rebellion would break out in Xinjiang Uyghur and Tibet. And they'd still have border issues with India. They'd be too divided on too many fronts.
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Re: China threatens war against the Philippines
« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2012, 12:32:15 pm »
The chances of war between the US and China are about as likely as Bristol Palin scoring a full ride to Harvard. The economies of the US and China are so intimately intertwined that if the connections were to be severed, both nations would tank almost overnight.

This is nothing more than standard Chinese posturing.
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