Author Topic: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins  (Read 1656 times)

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Online dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2018, 02:49:44 am »
The blue wave is happening. I hope Trump is getting nervous.

As I always tell Republicans, the one thing I know about Democrats is that they are very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Online niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2018, 02:55:00 am »
Whatever bro.

I don't find your latest post worth really responding to.

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Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2018, 05:23:15 am »
Trump doesn't have enough self awarness to be nervous

Offline RavynousHunter

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2018, 09:08:27 am »
Even if a blue wave is happening, that is no reason to get complacent.  Remember, we were complacent that Hil-dog winning was just a fact, and that turned out to not happen.  In the words of Alistair Moody: CONSTANT VIGILANCE!
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Online dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2018, 03:29:03 pm »
NYT now has Lamb leading by 627 (some absentee and such ballots have been counted), but there's still some more results to come in, generally from Republican-leaning parts of the district.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

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Be weird, cause normal is boring.

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From my rotting body, flowers will grow and I am in them and that is eternity.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2018, 01:05:33 am »
Lamb confirmed for winner. Also I got a robocall survey today, so that's how you know that the election is coming.

Online dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2018, 02:06:04 am »
Lamb confirmed for winner. Also I got a robocall survey today, so that's how you know that the election is coming.

I'd be surprised if Saccone didn't challenge the result (and wouldn't blame him, given how close it was). Of course, doing a recount in Pennsylvania is difficult at best, since most of the voting there (AFAIK) is done on machines that leave no paper trail.

Hand-marked paper ballots read by machine, and retained for manual recounts if necessary. That's what we use for civic elections here in Vancouver (27 elected positions--all our civic officers are elected at-large--plus generally 5 referendum questions). Speedy tabulation combined with security and surety of the vote.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

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Be weird, cause normal is boring.

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From my rotting body, flowers will grow and I am in them and that is eternity.

Online niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2018, 02:12:35 am »
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.
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Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2018, 02:51:00 am »
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.

Generally speaking, whenever an election is within half a percentage point, a recount is a viable thing for the loser to ask for. You're letting your biases control you.
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Online niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2018, 03:07:58 am »
@ Eiki-mun: Maybe, but I'm noticing something that might resemble a pattern here. But then, biases.
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Online dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2018, 03:54:23 am »
Dpareja saying he would not blame Saccone due to how close it was...

...would you also not blame Judge Moore for challenging his results?

I cannot help but feel this arbitrary skepticism is due to Lamb not exactly being the purest of leftists.

I think Moore was right to want a recount, precisely because it was close. (And Jones is nobody's leftist.) (EDIT: Of course, the Alabama special Senate election was nowhere near as close as the one currently under discussion; see below regarding my thoughts on whether a recount should occur.)

Do not think that I would somehow prefer Saccone or Moore to win; that does not mean I cannot also lament that their primary opposition was also not to my personal taste in political philosophy. (Lizard elections, if you will.)

What I want is to be sure that the result is correct, whatever effect that might ultimately have on the outcome. If a recount were to show that, in fact, Saccone had won, then while I would not like that outcome, I would also be content that it was the correct outcome.

Close elections should be subject to automatic recounts; up here, the threshold to trigger a mandatory judicial recount in federal elections is a margin of 0.1% of all votes cast in the riding (federally; the standard varies for provincial elections). Personally, I think that margin is too slim and might prefer 0.5% or even 1%, but I certainly think there should be some margin under which a recount is mandatory. (I will note that there are two counts done in federal elections: a provisional election-night count so that results are largely known by the following morning at the latest, and a second official count conducted over the following week or so before candidates are declared elected. It is on the basis of the latter that judicial recounts are triggered. I would also note that under the three standards I have given--the current 0.1%, and the two more expansive standards of 0.5% or 1%--the number of recounts in the previous federal election were or would have been, respectively, 0, 8, and 12.)

If the margin had been, say, 6,000 votes in favour of Lamb, I would be highly critical of Saccone for not conceding and demanding a recount unless he had very convincing evidence that there was a great deal of fuckery going on, and similarly if the roles were reversed. But since the margin is as small as it is, I think he is well justified in not conceding and considering insisting on a recount.

Now, I would also not blame him if he elected not to insist on a recount, even though the margin is such that under the sort of law governing recounts that I would support, one would be triggered automatically in this case. Given that no such provision exists in Pennsylvania law (to my knowledge, anyway), it is ultimately Saccone's choice whether or not to force a recount, and while in his place I would do so, and would so advise him were I in such a position, I can certainly understand the arguments for not doing so, the one I personally find most persuasive being the expense of a recount.

(Note: Here, the costs of a mandatory recount are borne by the state. However, candidates or voters can request a recount, but they must first convince a judge that there are grounds for doing so--candidates are permitted to have observers at polling stations and at vote counting, partly in order that they could collect evidence of possible malfeasance or misinterpretation of ballots in order to challenge an election--and the candidate or voter making such a challenge must then guarantee the costs incurred by whichever candidate ultimately is declared the winner.)

In short, my support of a recount is borne of my desire to ensure that the democratic process plays out fairly and reaches the proper result given the will of the people expressed by the voters through their ballots. Since it is Saccone who will ultimately choose whether a recount will occur, I would not only not blame him for wanting a recount, but--as I noted--advise him to seek one, and, further, would support changes in the law both to require recounts in close elections and to ensure that recounts can be done fully and comprehensively (such as by requiring hand-marked paper ballots).
« Last Edit: March 15, 2018, 03:56:07 am by dpareja »
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

Quote
Be weird, cause normal is boring.

Quote
From my rotting body, flowers will grow and I am in them and that is eternity.

Online niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #26 on: March 15, 2018, 04:17:50 am »
I am not concerned by such quibbles, least of all in the favor of a creature like Saccone or Moore and giving them the benefit of a recount. Neither Saccone nor Moore in my view deserve the potential benefit of a recount.

I won't lie, if the beneficiary of a recount would be a Democratic nominee, I would be all for it.

All these legalese files and such you've recounted hold no importance to me. What matters is my ideological friend Conor Lamb won.
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Offline Askold

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2018, 04:43:26 am »
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/trump-takes-full-credit-democrats-win-despite-endorsing-losing-gop-candidate-pa-race/ Trump is taking credit for the victory and saying that Lamb is totally supporting him.
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Online niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2018, 05:02:26 am »
Ignorance may be bliss, but it sure is stupid.
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Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2018, 09:05:32 am »
.......oh Ryan.  You hitched your star to a falling lead weight.

Ironbite-jesus fucking christ.