Author Topic: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins  (Read 4836 times)

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Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #150 on: October 03, 2018, 06:38:05 am »
Nope best let the GOP continue destroying unopposed.  It's the only way

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #151 on: October 03, 2018, 01:50:51 pm »
http://theweek.com/articles/799408/how-democratic-party-idiocy-may-cost-senate

Well, what could also do it is that Robert Menendez could very well lose in New Jersey.
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Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #152 on: October 03, 2018, 02:44:47 pm »
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.

Offline davedan

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #153 on: October 03, 2018, 07:04:59 pm »
It should be fucking the republicans. But again you will see women vote for the party that promotes sex offenders.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #154 on: October 04, 2018, 03:26:58 am »
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.

I thought so too until I started looking into it, and now I hope that people choose to have the sense to fuck over the republicans for it, because that dude's looking pretty guilty.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #155 on: October 04, 2018, 05:02:53 pm »
I seriously think this whole Kavannaugh thing is hurting the Democrats more than it is the Republicans and with it being so close to election it could put a stop to the blue wave that people were predicting.

My suspicion is that while it might generically help the Democrats (since the public at large is more opposed to Kavanaugh than not), it's not helping them in the places where they need to win, like House districts that lean slightly Republican or, for the Senate, states like North Dakota where there is (so Nate Silver claims, anyway, without providing a link) a majority in favour of confirming Kavanaugh.

Plus, especially with the Senate, those national polls are going to poll a lot of people from places like California (where a Democratic candidate is absolutely guaranteed to win) and New York (where Gillibrand is almost certain to win), and far fewer people from places like Montana, North Dakota, or West Virginia, which are seats the Democrats really need to hold and where a pro-Kavanaugh tilt won't much impact the national result.

EDIT: Meanwhile, in a recent campaign ad, a Democratic candidate for the House literally gave out his cell phone number. (I won't say who because of forum anti-doxxing rules.)

EDIT #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msgjzWvniNs

Investigative reporter Greg Palast on how US elections have been--and are still being--stolen.

It's not the Russians, folks.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 08:11:27 pm by dpareja »
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #156 on: October 17, 2018, 12:35:42 am »


Apparently the Kavanaugh thing isn't hurting Democrats in the house quite as much as people thought. Or at all.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #157 on: October 17, 2018, 12:37:54 am »
But it is in the Senate, because there they have to hold seats in states where, contrary to national opinion (largely dictated by populous states), confirming Kavanaugh was popular. Heitkamp in particular is in tough.

EDIT: And as a result, "Extreme Makeover: Judiciary Edition" may well get another two years.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #158 on: October 17, 2018, 12:59:41 am »
Well, I can still hope Kavanaugh chokes on something.

I've seen a lot of stories and online roleplays suddenly use a lot of evil jocks named Brett lately.
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Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #159 on: October 17, 2018, 01:22:53 am »
It's unfortunate that a large portion of senate races that could make a difference this time around are being held in red states. The Kavannaugh thing just emboldened voters in those areas. I'm predicting Trump will win again in 2020 unfortnately, because the only thing that's really going to stop him is a tanked economy or if Mueller actually comes out with some damning evidence. And there's no one that exciting that I can see leading the Democratic party for 2020. I think some seats in the house will be lost in 2020, but not enough to flip and then the GOP will lose the Senate in 2022. Trump fatigue will kick in, his supporters will turn on him as he fails to really accomplish anything in his second term and the economy most likely heads towards collapse. The GOP will fail to put up someone as exciting as Trump in 2024 and a democratic candidate that no one can predict right now will win the presidency. Most likely a woman as the Me Too movement grows even stronger.

Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #160 on: October 18, 2018, 03:36:17 pm »
Race to watch: West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district.

Trump won it by forty-nine points.

The Cook PVI on the district is R+23.

The Democratic candidate is running a hard populist left, anti-corruption campaign--one of his ads called out both Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell as having sold out West Virginians. Another specifically shamed his opponent by name for attacking his military record when he's a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan and she's a millionaire.

The polling in the district is a statistical dead heat. (538's Lite--polls-only--forecast has it as a toss-up.)

If that can flip a district that's R+23, that can work anywhere.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 03:42:49 pm by dpareja »
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.