Author Topic: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins  (Read 1530 times)

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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #60 on: April 25, 2018, 02:06:10 am »
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.
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Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #61 on: April 25, 2018, 02:13:01 am »
Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren is facing an opponent who put up an ad that photoshopped a Native American headdress on her head while calling himself a "real Indian" because he is of Indian descent.

Where the fuck did this whole "Pocahontas" thing even come from in the first place?

Trump started it a while back. Its because she's like 1/32 Native American.Republicans claim his is a lie so she could get ahead in academia using affirmative action.

Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #62 on: April 25, 2018, 02:18:06 am »
R+6. In a state like Arizona. Which should be R+20 or something.

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Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #63 on: April 25, 2018, 02:20:45 am »
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.

It makes a lot of sense, when you consider which elections were 6 years ago (2012, Obama election year) and 12 years ago (2006, the last Democratic wave election).
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #64 on: April 25, 2018, 03:09:37 am »
R+6 overall in the Arizona 8th. That's not good for Rs. A 15-point swing towards the Dems, if replicated everywhere, would be what many might call a bloodbath at the polls.

And even then they'd only just take the Senate, because damn do they have a lot of Class 1 Senators.

It makes a lot of sense, when you consider which elections were 6 years ago (2012, Obama election year) and 12 years ago (2006, the last Democratic wave election).

And 2000 (Gore slightly ahead of Bush on popular vote). All after 1994 (Republican Revolution). I know why, I'm just saying, a wave could happen and they still might not take the Senate, and even if they do it's tough to see how they have more than 51 or 52. (Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and Tennessee are probably the only ones they can take, while they could definitely lose Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota.) And they have to find a way to make inroads in 2020 and 2022--not easy to do both--so that any potential crash in 2024 won't kill their majority.

EDIT: https://theintercept.com/2018/04/26/steny-hoyer-audio-levi-tillemann/

Audio of Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), House Minority Whip, talking with a candidate in the Democratic primary in Colorado's 6th Congressional District.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 11:54:15 pm by dpareja »
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It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #65 on: May 03, 2018, 04:39:04 am »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

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Be weird, cause normal is boring.

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From my rotting body, flowers will grow and I am in them and that is eternity.

Offline Tolpuddle Martyr

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #66 on: May 03, 2018, 07:11:34 am »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

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The shift was especially dramatic among young white men, who two years ago favored Democrats but now say they favor Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 46 to 37 percent
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Offline Lana Reverse

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #67 on: May 03, 2018, 09:46:39 am »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

I'm not sure it's the Dems losing millennials so much as it is more members of Generation Z reaching voting age. The poll mentioned in the article appears to be defining millennials by age bracket rather than birth year, which is... not the best definition.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #68 on: May 03, 2018, 03:16:32 pm »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

Here's some sobering news for Democrats and cheering news for Republicans: millennial (18-34) support looks to be shifting toward the latter.

Democrats still have a lead, to be sure. But in January-March 2018, compared to the same period in 2016, Democrats lost 9 points among millennials and Republicans gained 1. In white millennials, they've drawn even, and white male millennials have flipped.

I'm not sure it's the Dems losing millennials so much as it is more members of Generation Z reaching voting age. The poll mentioned in the article appears to be defining millennials by age bracket rather than birth year, which is... not the best definition.

It's still not great news for Democrats.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

Quote
Be weird, cause normal is boring.

Quote
From my rotting body, flowers will grow and I am in them and that is eternity.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #69 on: May 04, 2018, 03:24:19 am »
Any ideas on how they can be flipped back away from the republicans?

Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #70 on: May 04, 2018, 04:09:25 am »
Keep in mind, these are the numbers now, in May, and many of these races are months away.

There absolutely should be youth outreach, but this is far from the end of the world. We are seeing a lot of energy against Trump and the Republicans, and areas they won handily are suddenly looking a lot shakier.

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