Nuclear Test Un, Two, Three

[DiscoBerry]

Biggest bomb North Korea has tested yet. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkV7N32O_Vo

Linked because site won't let me embed for some reason. 

[Scotsgit]

Bit from the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21429544

North Korean military ambitions are a "serious threat" to the US, outgoing Pentagon chief Leon Panetta has said.

In a speech made after Pyongyang carried out its third nuclear test, Mr Panetta likened the North to Iran, describing them as "rogue states".

In New York, the UN Security Council "strongly condemned" the nuclear test.

The council said it would begin work on measures against North Korea, after UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the test was a "clear and grave violation".

Earlier, Pyongyang said "even stronger" action might follow, saying its test was a response to US "hostility".

Nuclear test monitors in Vienna say the underground explosion had double the force of the last test, in 2009, despite the use of a device said by the North to be smaller.

If a smaller device was indeed tested, analysts said this could take Pyongyang closer to building a warhead small enough to arm a missile.

UN sanctions on North Korea were expanded after the secretive communist state launched a rocket in December, in a move condemned by the UN as a banned test of missile technology.

'Stern' message
North Korea's latest nuclear test comes as senators in Washington prepare for the first votes on whether to confirm Chuck Hagel as successor to current Defence Secretary Leon Panetta.

In a farewell speech at the Pentagon, Mr Panetta said the US would continue to be tested by unpredictable regimes in years to come.

"We're going to have to deal with weapons of mass destruction and the proliferation. We're going to have to continue with rogue states like Iran and North Korea.

"We just saw what North Korea's done in these last few weeks - a missile test and now a nuclear test. They represent a serious threat to the United States of America. We've got to be prepared to deal with that."

US President Barack Obama, who is to make his State of the Union speech later, called the test a "highly provocative act" and called for "swift" and "credible" international action in response.

China, North Korea's main ally and a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, summoned North Korea's ambassador to Beijing to express its concern over the test.


Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi delivered a "stern representation"' to Ji Jae Ryong and expressed China's "strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition'' to the test, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement.

Earlier, it urged the North to honour its commitment to denuclearisation and "not take any actions which might worsen the situation".

The test was condemned by North Korea's immediate neighbours, South Korea and Japan, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a revival of talks on the North's nuclear arms programme.

In a defiant message to the UN's disarmament forum, the North said it would never bow to resolutions on its nuclear programme and blamed the failure of diplomacy on the US.

"The US and their followers are sadly mistaken if they miscalculate the DPRK [North Korea] would respect the entirely unreasonable resolutions against it," the North's envoy, Jon Yong Ryong, told the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

'Miniaturised' device
North Korea confirmed the test after international monitors recorded seismic activity consistent with a powerful underground explosion at 11:57 (02:57 GMT) on Tuesday.

Activity had been observed at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site for several months.

State-run KCNA news agency said the test was "carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturised and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously".

North Korea said the nuclear test was a response to the "reckless hostility of the United States".

TL;DR:  North Korea has a nuke and, if recent years are anything to go by, a man who has absolute power in charge. 

So no worries then?

[SpaceProg]

The destruction is mutually assured.  I hope Kim Jong Un knows that.

[mellenORL]

The fact that China called NK's senior ambassador to come to the principal's office for a chat is helpful; "If we've told you once, we've told you a hundred times - No playing with firecrackers!"

Never a good idea to piss off the hand that feeds you, by threatening their largest trade customer, and by proximity, their second, third, fourth and fifth most important neighborhood customers, too. If NK ever goes through with an armed launch, Pyongyang will finally show up very, very brightly lit in a night time satelite image.

[Random Gal]

Yeah. If he's dumb enough to actually use a nuke on another country, North Korea's getting curbstomped.

[SpaceProg]

What I hate is if Un goes through with actually attacking the US and curbstomping does occur, a lot of innocents will die simply because their ruler has his head up his ass.

[mellenORL]

I strongly agree. NK's people have suffered enough. They are like the abused kids of a psycho neighbor's family, always wearing raggedy clothes, thin, scared-looking and brainwashed obedient to Daddy.

I just hope there is some secret defence hardware already in place to bat that roman candle outta the sky before it hurts someone.

[Askold]

The destruction is mutually assured.  I hope Kim Jong Un knows that.

No it is not. North Korea can't destroy USA and her allies completely.

At best they might:

a) Fire off a nuke into South Korea (and conventional artillery and missiles as well) causing horrible damage to that country.

b) Perhaps fire a nuke into Japan.

c) If they improve their equipment fire one or two nukes into USA.

None of these would allow them to destroy their three main enemies, USA, Japan and South korea.

They can cause heavy casualties, mostly to civilians, and the nukes would certainly irradiate whatever they bomb but they do not have the firepower to destroy USA or Japan.

If the war is fought with conventional weapons only they could cause heavy casualties before collapsing but they would lose eventually because this time they would not get any help from Russia or China.

And if they fire the first nuke their country will be obliterated. The only objection china would have would be the fear of fallout spreading to their country. In fact China might even help curbstomp NK if it prevents others from using nukes.

[Goonerboy]

Part of me hopes they go through with it, get curb stomped and annexed to the south, freeing the people who've been suffering all these decades.

[SpaceProg]

The destruction is mutually assured.  I hope Kim Jong Un knows that.

No it is not. North Korea can't destroy USA and her allies completely.

At best they might:

a) Fire off a nuke into South Korea (and conventional artillery and missiles as well) causing horrible damage to that country.

b) Perhaps fire a nuke into Japan.

c) If they improve their equipment fire one or two nukes into USA.

None of these would allow them to destroy their three main enemies, USA, Japan and South korea.

They can cause heavy casualties, mostly to civilians, and the nukes would certainly irradiate whatever they bomb but they do not have the firepower to destroy USA or Japan.

If the war is fought with conventional weapons only they could cause heavy casualties before collapsing but they would lose eventually because this time they would not get any help from Russia or China.

And if they fire the first nuke their country will be obliterated. The only objection china would have would be the fear of fallout spreading to their country. In fact China might even help curbstomp NK if it prevents others from using nukes.

Well... to be honest I said that mostly for dramatic effect.  You have good points.

[chitoryu12]

I think South Korea will be their first target; I'm more than willing to bet that the US has missile defense systems in place, and it's unlikely that they'll even be able to make a launch that reaches us anyway. Not with the entire Pacific to try and cross first.

Also, they've got WAY more of a grudge against South Korea. I'm betting that if they do make an attack, it'll be toward their immediate enemies to try and annex them in preparation for whatever plans they may have. And that's basically just going to inspire everyone in NATO and probably everyone else to band together and blow them to smithereens. Assuming the South Koreans don't get to them first.

[RavynousHunter]

Yeaaaaaah...if they bomb South Korea, the shit's gonna hit the fan, especially if its a nuke.  Also, its pretty bad when China, a country that's infamous for its very strong-handed government law enforcement, to put it lightly, and likely one of the only credible threats to the USA, is calling you out for being bug-fuck insane.

Kim Jong Un, please, get a therapist.  For the sake of your fuckin people, because making a martyr of an entire country would likely lead to your country being set on fire.  Literally and metaphorically.

[chitoryu12]

Yeaaaaaah...if they bomb South Korea, the shit's gonna hit the fan, especially if its a nuke.  Also, its pretty bad when China, a country that's infamous for its very strong-handed government law enforcement, to put it lightly, and likely one of the only credible threats to the USA, is calling you out for being bug-fuck insane.

Kim Jong Un, please, get a therapist.  For the sake of your fuckin people, because making a martyr of an entire country would likely lead to your country being set on fire.  Literally and metaphorically.

Well, China's also not stupid. China and the US are both highly reliant on one another for economic stability, and the people running China aren't outright evil. They support North Korea when it suits them, but they ALSO know that they're like a petulant child. Well, they're starting to realize that the petulant child hasn't changed as it's grown up and is ready to do something really fucking stupid.

[Jack Mann]

North Korea has been useful to China.  They were like a leashed dog.  "Gosh, it's a pity about all those trade sanctions you want to put on us.  On a completely unrelated note, our buddy North Korea wants to build some nukes.  We could probably get them to stop, but..."  It's worked for them in the past.  Unfortunately, North Korea has just shown that they won't listen to China anymore.

This presents a problem for China.  They don't want to let the US in, because then they'd have even more US influence in the region.  They don't want North Korea to actually go to war, because that would ruffle all sorts of diplomatic feathers on all sides, and disrupt trade.  And they don't want to invade North Korea for themselves, because it's going to be goddamned expensive to fix up that mess.

It'll be interesting to see what China ultimately does.  They pretty much hold the fate of North Korea in their hands now.

[chitoryu12]

North Korea has been useful to China.  They were like a leashed dog.  "Gosh, it's a pity about all those trade sanctions you want to put on us.  On a completely unrelated note, our buddy North Korea wants to build some nukes.  We could probably get them to stop, but..."  It's worked for them in the past.  Unfortunately, North Korea has just shown that they won't listen to China anymore.

This presents a problem for China.  They don't want to let the US in, because then they'd have even more US influence in the region.  They don't want North Korea to actually go to war, because that would ruffle all sorts of diplomatic feathers on all sides, and disrupt trade.  And they don't want to invade North Korea for themselves, because it's going to be goddamned expensive to fix up that mess.

It'll be interesting to see what China ultimately does.  They pretty much hold the fate of North Korea in their hands now.

I think in the event of outright war between NATO (read: everyone else) and North Korea, China would either stay neutral (or give minimal secret assistance to NK) or outright work with everyone else. It would be extremely bad for their continued existence to support North Korea if they attacked anyone, especially the United States, and they know that. North Korea is one of those countries that literally everyone, even minor South American states, really wouldn't mind seeing go away. If China supports the country that's basically Blofeld made into a country, it would be tantamount to getting the entire world against them. And they can't afford that.

Neither can the rest of the planet, really; everyone is co-dependent in their relationships with China. But if a nuke gets launched or South Korea gets invaded, it's going to be a no-holds-barred beatdown and China WILL get caught in the crossfire if they try to support the bad guys.