Things just got real in Ukraine

[Askold]

THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY HAS 1000'000 SOLDIERS IN RESERVE!

This information is freely available on several websites including wikipedia.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1394546412759425100/ukraine-announces-partial-mobilisation-of-army-reserves.aspx

Oh look, they are ALREADY mobilising their reserves. The article does say that this is a partial mobilisation but you have to remember that getting hundreds of thousands troops equipped does take a lot of time and can not be made subtly.

And they have more than just T-64s, they also have 271 T-80s and a rather sizeable artillery force. Actually looking at their equipment list it does not look that bad, they've got some good anti-air and anti-tank weapons. I don't know that much about airplanes but those seem to be mostly Russian/Soviet (Did USSR put some safeties or backdoors for electronic countermeasures in case someone would try to use their stuff against them?)

[Lt. Fred]

The useful tanks are all mothballed, for whatever reason (the best they have, the T80UK, is still out of date compared to the Russian stuff anyway). Both Ukrainian Armoured Brigades are mounted on T-64s of one variety or another. The Ukrainian air force has actually fairly good tech - SU-24s and Mig-29s - but it's tiny. They have about 40 jets or so.

Artillery is nice so long as the enemy doesn't move around too much. Their AT, particularly their ATGMs, are basically too old to be effective against a T-80 or T-90.

You are right about their air defence, though. Their SAM/AAA fleet is crazy good. They have Buks out the ass! The Russians ought to be very worried about air supremacy in case of any conflict, unless they go on a SEAD binge.


I'd be interested to see how long a corps of reservists with AKs could stop a determined tank division.

[Askold]

"Reservists with AKs..."

How about reservists with BUKs and AT missiles and tanks?

You do realize that those reservists have been trained with the stuff that the Ukrainian military uses? They aren't just random dudes who get a uniform and a gun.

[Lt. Fred]

Yeah, I'm still pretty skeptical about the effectiveness of reservists.

[Kat S.]

With all this talk about the military, I wonder how the Ukrainian civilians would factor in and what kind of warfare they would fight on the Russian forces.  I'm sure not all of them would hide and let the military forces duke it out.

[Askold]

In other news, even though in public the Russian goverment has been trying to gain the support of the Crimean Tatar minority the Tatars are not looking forward to being ruled by Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUOq8vpkZzY
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/crimea-tatars-fear-worst-prepares-referendum

Their leader wants to boycott the soon coming vote to join Russia.

I also heard that when the Crimean goverment decided about the vote to join Russia their Tatar representatives were not allowed to take part in that vote. Some claim that the Tatars weren't notified of the vote, others claimed that there were actually armed men stopping them from entering the goverment building and interfering with democracy. (But I haven't found a decent news site to confirm that claim so take it with a ton of salt.)

EDIT: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/03/13/dispatches-black-thursday-moscow

Russia is shutting down independent news agencies. This is very alarming.

It might be the next step in their preparations for an full war ...or just the logical progress in their path to totalitarian dictatorship. (Hint, they are pretty far already.)

[Kat S.]

Everyone else is waiting for the Crimea election result.  The election isn't really going to matter anyway, because there is no option for Crimea to stay with Ukraine and keep Russian Forces out.  The two options on the ballot allow for Russian forces to stay in Crimea. 

From what I've been reading from news and blogs, the Tartars are not going to welcome Russian forces with arms wide open.  Does anyone see a potential powder keg, or is it media sensationalism?

[Cerim Treascair]

Watch Putin take the 'No, we're not joining Russia' vote result as the last straw and invading.

... Boy, I'm getting bloodthirsty, hoping that the Ukraine just turns it into a war of attrition and Russia loses so many men that it's not worth it inside of a week.

[Art Vandelay]

Watch Putin take the 'No, we're not joining Russia' vote result as the last straw and invading.

They don't have that option in the first place. The choices are either join Russia, or let the local, pro-Russian government decide. Either way, they're joining Russia.

[Kat S.]

From Elena's posting to different news agencies, reports are coming in that Russian forces have crept up north into mainland Ukraine.


In related news, the U.S. is planning to send 25,000 cases of Meals Ready to Eat (MRE's) to Ukraine for their request for supplies of any kind for their military. 

Protips for any Ukrainian service member reading this:  Heat the meals, and make sure you have some hot sauce on hand just in case you don't like the entre.  The Chili Mac is pretty good, especially when heated, the ravioli and Beef Stew MRE has M&Ms or Skittles.  If you don't want to gain a lot of weight, take the vegetarian meal.

[RavynousHunter]

That is, of course, assuming that they eat the MREs and then sit around doing fuck all, which I highly doubt will be the case as military people generally like to keep their bodies moving to keep in, ya know, militarily-fit physical condition.  A fat soldier is a dead soldier.

[Kat S.]

That is, of course, assuming that they eat the MREs and then sit around doing fuck all, which I highly doubt will be the case as military people generally like to keep their bodies moving to keep in, ya know, militarily-fit physical condition.  A fat soldier is a dead soldier.

If war for them is anything like what U.S. soldiers experience, there can be some times of waiting.  Ukraine's military may not have, and pardon the pun, a big issue with overweight soldiers, but I bet you they are out there no matter what military.

[Ultimate Paragon]

I think part of Putin's problem is that he's been surrounded by sycophants for 14 years.  He's probably starting to buy into his own lies.

[KZN02]

Hoo boy, Crimea wants to be with Russia

[Lt. Fred]

That is, not to put too fine a point on it, some bullshit.