2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries

[dpareja]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/02/29/rel4b.-.2016.general.pdf

The margin of error on this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Of the remaining Presidential candidates, only Sanders is seen favorably by a majority of those polled.

Clinton is beating Trump by 8 points, losing to Rubio by 3 and losing to Cruz by 1.

Sanders beating Trump by 12, Rubio by 8, and Cruz by 17.

Sanders has at least a 50% favorable rating among men, women, whites, non-whites, all age groups, all income levels, among those with or without a college degree, even by a third of those who lean Republican, positively among indepedents and by at least 30% of those who identify of conservatives, among every region of the country, among urbanites and suburbanites, and by 43% of rural residents.

Clinton is seen similarly favorably only among women, non-whites, Democrats, liberals, exactly 50% of independents, and by a majority of those who oppose the Tea Party.

So... Clinton is more electable, right?

[ironbite]

More electable then Trump that's for sure who's already probably declaring himself god emperor of Earth.

[pyro]

More electable then Trump that's for sure who's already probably declaring himself god emperor of Earth.

And Monster energy drinks are more portable than gasoline. Doesn't mean I want one.

(No offense to Hillary; just trying to make the point that "more electable than Donald Trump" is a ridiculously low bar.)

[The_Queen]

Virginia and Georgia for Hillary

Vermont for Bernie.

ETA: Alabama and Tennessee for Hillary.

ETA2: Arkansas for Hillary.

ETA3: Texas for Hillary.

ETA4: Oklahoma for Bernie.

[Art Vandelay]

Whelp, looks like Hilldog has this in the bag.

[The_Queen]

Whelp, looks like Hilldog has this in the bag.

Looks like it, The results are still pending for Colorado and Minnesota, both of which will 50-50, if not more favorable to Bernie. But, even if they're blowouts for Bernie, Hillary won a lot, and she got the better of Super Tuesday.

[dpareja]

Whelp, looks like Hilldog has this in the bag.

Looks like it, The results are still pending for Colorado and Minnesota, both of which will 50-50, if not more favorable to Bernie. But, even if they're blowouts for Bernie, Hillary won a lot, and she got the better of Super Tuesday.

Clinton got the better of Super Tuesday... but look at how many Southern states were on Super Tuesday. She won Super Tuesday because Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia all voted today. Massachusetts is pretty much a dead heat, Sanders destroyed her in Vermont (which is as little a surprise as her wins in the first six), Colorado and Minnesota are still to come, Oklahoma somehow went Sanders (and it was the rural areas that gave it to him), and American Samoa has 6 delegates so Clinton's win there isn't really relevant.

EDIT: And right now, Colorado and Minnesota are both leaning toward Sanders. So of the four states that were probably up for grabs (Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota), one is almost even (Clinton is slightly up in Massachusetts) and the other three are looking to go Sanders.

Clinton won more states, yes, but Sanders looks to win more states that matter.

[lord gibbon]

Just got back from the Caucus, and if the state follows suit, Bernie is gonna take Colorado.

Super Tuesday and the earlier states are a bit biased, I must say. they're, on average, more conservative, which skews the numbers a great deal.

[dpareja]

Also, because of the way Democratic delegates are allocated, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote in Massachusetts, but Sanders may end up with more delegates. (Granted, if he does, it'd be by one or three delegates, but still.)

EDIT: Which means that I will laugh very hard when I see news outlets saying "Clinton won Massachusetts" if Sanders came out with more pledged delegates thanks to allocation rules. (Right now, according to The Green Papers, Clinton has about 3,000 more votes out of 950,000, but Sanders has one more pledged delegate.)

EDIT #2: To be clear, I'm looking at the table that breaks down votes and delegates by congressional district, not the table at the top with coarser results.

[lord gibbon]

Welp, Colorado and Minnesota, which I considered the two most important states tonight, went for Bernie. Now things really get exiting.

Also, if the future holds more like the caucus I attended, then Bernie could pull out even more upsets. Apparently, our district had four time the turnout of 2008.

[pyro]

If this ends up being Sanders vs Trump (which doesn't seem implausible) it will mean the country is officially split in two. A "SOCIALIST" vs a "FASCIST."

[The_Queen]

Welp, Colorado and Minnesota, which I considered the two most important states tonight, went for Bernie. Now things really get exiting.

Also, if the future holds more like the caucus I attended, then Bernie could pull out even more upsets. Apparently, our district had four time the turnout of 2008.

You know, Cenk Uygur said the same thing, but I am not convinced that it is objective observation as opposed to wishful thinking. Hillary currently leads Bernie by about 600-400 pledged delegates, and 450-20 among superdelegates. She's half way there. The slate of states in the near future isn't much more favorable to Bernie.

March 5, 109 Delegates: Louisiana, Nebraska, and Kansas (no official poll in Nebraska, Hillary up in Louisiana and Kansas. Kansas may turn due to Oklahoma)
March 6, 25 Delegates: Maine (Bernie's up)
March 8, 179 Delegates: Democrats abroad ends, Michigan, and Mississippi (Hillary is up in Both Michigan and Mississippi)
March 12, 11 Delegates: Mariana Islands
March 15, 691 Delegates: Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina (Hillary leads in all of these states, and they have large black populations)

After that, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, New York. Alaska and Washington feel the Bern, but Wisconsin will be a toss up, and Clinton will probably win New York. If these predictions hold up, then yeah those numbers alone won't give Hillary the nomination, they will put her just above 1600 delegates to Bernie's estimated 900.

[dpareja]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikn8WAMvl_k

I know someone was asking about why caucuses were still in use. Here's video of a Colorado Democratic caucus. (Note: Republicans vote by secret ballot at their caucuses.)

[TheContrarian]

Which one will see the populace herded into proletarian organic farming collectives the fastest?

I'm looking forward to the spectacle of 300 million body-positive eatbeasts getting systematically starved to death by a hilarious combination of revolutionary zeal and leftist agricultural policy

[dpareja]

Which one will see the populace herded into proletarian organic farming collectives the fastest?

Neither, because Hillary's a less-wingnut Republican and Bernie's at best a centrist.