Author Topic: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries  (Read 101162 times)

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Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #405 on: May 04, 2016, 02:23:37 am »
I'll admit that Hillary might be a bad choice for President but I'll be damned if Trump gets the White House.

Ironbite-I'm all for Sanders but there's a point where you have to just hold your nose.

What will be really interesting will be to see if a progressive manages to marshal the movement Sanders did this year and successfully knock out Clinton in the Democratic primaries in 2020. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing; it could get those progressives out to the polls in the general, flip state legislatures and redraw electoral maps to favor the Democratic Party.

Unfortunately, a Democratic resurgence in the House in 2020 is more likely if TRUMP wins than if Hillary does.

Everyone in the USA doing a Mad Max LARP is more likely in 2020 if Trump has won than if Hillary does. Besides, isn't it possible that Hillary and the other Dems do so good job that people join the Democrats when they see how well things work when they are in charge?

Not really. Historically speaking, the party in power in the Oval Office loses out in the states and legislative branch, the large majority of the time.
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Offline Askold

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #406 on: May 04, 2016, 02:40:54 am »
...Well that's yet more evidence that the system doesn't work if people are almost always disappointed in the party in power.
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Offline SCarpelan

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #407 on: May 04, 2016, 10:23:23 am »
...Well that's yet more evidence that the system doesn't work if people are almost always disappointed in the party in power.
Except it happens in pretty much every representative democracy unless there is a crisis that unites people - even in that case the ruling parties need to take care of it in a way that makes them seem competent. Governing requires making compromises and you are in the mercy of the global circumstances. It's easy for the opposition parties to gain popularity by criticizing the real and perceived mistakes you will inevitably make.

(From a local perspective, that's why I wanted the Finns party in the government already after their first big election victory - it was obvious that their supporters would be disillusioned.)

Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #408 on: May 04, 2016, 12:50:11 pm »
...Well that's yet more evidence that the system doesn't work if people are almost always disappointed in the party in power.
Except it happens in pretty much every representative democracy unless there is a crisis that unites people - even in that case the ruling parties need to take care of it in a way that makes them seem competent. Governing requires making compromises and you are in the mercy of the global circumstances. It's easy for the opposition parties to gain popularity by criticizing the real and perceived mistakes you will inevitably make.

(From a local perspective, that's why I wanted the Finns party in the government already after their first big election victory - it was obvious that their supporters would be disillusioned.)

Yeah, people are less likely to vote if they perceive things as going well. And, people are more likely to see things as going well if their party is in power (and as a corollary, people are more likely to see things as broken if their party isn't in power). This just shows up more in the two party system, because it is a two party system (i.e. about 50% of the population will feel content and be less likely to vote, and the other 50% will feel things are broken and vote more often).
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Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #409 on: May 05, 2016, 10:39:16 am »
And with the primaries in the books, most people can begin to look forward to the general election, but not Bernie or Bust. Even after Bernie made the "damn emails" comment that many of them believed won the first debate, a number of Bernie or Busters still believe she did something wrong (such as Damen on this board), or that she SHOULD be indicted to give Bernie the nomination (read the comments on any article dealing with Hillary), or that it is such a big threat that the DNC should prepare for it (but the part about Bernie isn't explicitly stated, even though that is the intent, from idiots like Cenk Uygar).

But, while reading through a legal blog or two on current issues, I stumbled upon one dealing with Hillary's email server and why the whole thing is a fabricated scandal to tarnish Hillary. Not that the GOP would ever do such a thing (Benghazi). But it's well written, explains the issue and relevant interpretations of the law, the writer is a distinguished Professor at Michigan (of national security law and sociology) and has a nice reputation in his field. It's a good read for anyone wanting to understand how little water this scandal carries.
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Offline Ironchew

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #410 on: May 05, 2016, 01:42:57 pm »
And with the primaries in the books, most people can begin to look forward to the general election, but not Bernie or Bust. Even after Bernie made the "damn emails" comment that many of them believed won the first debate, a number of Bernie or Busters still believe she did something wrong (such as Damen on this board), or that she SHOULD be indicted to give Bernie the nomination (read the comments on any article dealing with Hillary), or that it is such a big threat that the DNC should prepare for it (but the part about Bernie isn't explicitly stated, even though that is the intent, from idiots like Cenk Uygar).

But, while reading through a legal blog or two on current issues, I stumbled upon one dealing with Hillary's email server and why the whole thing is a fabricated scandal to tarnish Hillary. Not that the GOP would ever do such a thing (Benghazi). But it's well written, explains the issue and relevant interpretations of the law, the writer is a distinguished Professor at Michigan (of national security law and sociology) and has a nice reputation in his field. It's a good read for anyone wanting to understand how little water this scandal carries.

I was always of the opinion that the e-mails controversy was a flimsy Benghazi-esque scandal. I'm not voting for Clinton for different reasons (first and foremost I'm anti-war and she most decidedly isn't), and if she's the Democratic nominee, as she likely will be, I'll vote 3rd party for an anti-war candidate.
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Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #411 on: May 05, 2016, 01:46:45 pm »
And with the primaries in the books, most people can begin to look forward to the general election, but not Bernie or Bust. Even after Bernie made the "damn emails" comment that many of them believed won the first debate, a number of Bernie or Busters still believe she did something wrong (such as Damen on this board), or that she SHOULD be indicted to give Bernie the nomination (read the comments on any article dealing with Hillary), or that it is such a big threat that the DNC should prepare for it (but the part about Bernie isn't explicitly stated, even though that is the intent, from idiots like Cenk Uygar).

But, while reading through a legal blog or two on current issues, I stumbled upon one dealing with Hillary's email server and why the whole thing is a fabricated scandal to tarnish Hillary. Not that the GOP would ever do such a thing (Benghazi). But it's well written, explains the issue and relevant interpretations of the law, the writer is a distinguished Professor at Michigan (of national security law and sociology) and has a nice reputation in his field. It's a good read for anyone wanting to understand how little water this scandal carries.

I was always of the opinion that the e-mails controversy was a flimsy Benghazi-esque scandal. I'm not voting for Clinton for different reasons (first and foremost I'm anti-war and she most decidedly isn't), and if she's the Democratic nominee, as she likely will be, I'll vote 3rd party for an anti-war candidate.

Well, don't vote Jill Stein, because she's an anti-GMO idiot. IDK why people think that she's somehow intelligent or reasonable. Maybe it's cause she has a PhD, though Ben Carson's also a doctor and nobody thinks he's sharper than your average pillow.
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Offline Ironchew

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #412 on: May 05, 2016, 01:52:55 pm »
A president with a bit of anti-GMO nonsense (and who will unsuccessfully wrestle with Congress about it if at all) is, in my opinion, less damaging than our miliitary excursions abroad.

But I'm not voting 3rd party necessarily because I think I'm voting for a winner. I'm doing it because I vote for the best candidate presented to me, and with Sanders likely out, the two major parties will present deeply disappointing candidates this year.
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Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #413 on: May 05, 2016, 01:57:33 pm »
A president with a bit of anti-GMO nonsense (and who will unsuccessfully wrestle with Congress about it if at all) is, in my opinion, less damaging than our miliitary excursions abroad.

But I'm not voting 3rd party necessarily because I think I'm voting for a winner. I'm doing it because I vote for the best candidate presented to me, and with Sanders likely out, the two major parties will present deeply disappointing candidates this year.

My point is more that it emboldens pseudo-scientific dribble, and we've seen enough damage from that during the Bush era. Disregarding the harms, there is little difference between the anti-GMO groups and the anti-vaxxers, as both rely substantially on big-money and fear tactics to push their agenda. The only real difference with the harms: the harms of anti-GMO bullshit is primarily to overseas farmers who won't be able to sell their crops and feed their families, while the harm of anti-vaxxers is in our own backyard.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #414 on: May 05, 2016, 02:12:26 pm »
One interesting side effect of this election will be that there will likely be a higher than usual percentage of voters supporting--or at least taking a long, hard look at--candidates like Jill Stein or Gary Johnson on account of finding both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump unpalatable. Not enough to win any electoral votes for the third-party candidates, but possibly enough to put a big scare into the major parties.
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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #415 on: May 06, 2016, 02:23:53 am »
The reason we have a two-party system is that that's the only stable result of our de jour first party the post system. The two major parties have nothing to fear.

Offline dpareja

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #416 on: May 06, 2016, 03:52:38 am »
The reason we have a two-party system is that that's the only stable result of our de jour first party the post system. The two major parties have nothing to fear.

And yet Canada and the UK both manage to have three nationally competitive parties despite using the same awful electoral system.
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Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #417 on: May 06, 2016, 10:20:30 am »
The reason we have a two-party system is that that's the only stable result of our de jour first party the post system. The two major parties have nothing to fear.

And yet Canada and the UK both manage to have three nationally competitive parties despite using the same awful electoral system.

1. Arguing exceptions does not defeat the fact that it is the general rule
2. Both nations you provided actually undermine your point, as the 3rd parties get more percentage votes than representatives, on average.
3. Both of those nations are parliament systems in which they elect their Prime Ministers not nationally, but legislatively. This matters because of what I said in the GOP going forward thread--3rd parties might be viable regionally, but they simply cannot be on a national scale. The Duverger's law accounts for this, theorizing that in federalist systems like ours, where our high office is nationally elected, the parties have to merge on a national scale to keep competitive for the presidency.
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Offline The_Queen

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #418 on: May 06, 2016, 02:39:30 pm »
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Dpareja, I was on another board when I realized that somebody there did what you did here, and it made me realize that you did it. I am kind of confused as to how you can justify being upset in both of these posts. It's contradictory to get upset at Hillary when you believe she's buying superdelegates, but then to get upset again when she isn't giving enough money to superdelegates. I guess what I am trying to say is I'm a bit cynical, and I think that you just want to be mad at Clinton while supporting anything that would help Sanders win (another good example is the March 15th primaries and your response). So I ask, what is the proper balance that Clinton should take in terms of raising money for lower ticket races? 

It is one thing to oppose a candidate, but another thing entirely to oppose anything that candidate does.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries
« Reply #419 on: May 06, 2016, 04:15:42 pm »
The reason we have a two-party system is that that's the only stable result of our de jour first party the post system. The two major parties have nothing to fear.

And yet Canada and the UK both manage to have three nationally competitive parties despite using the same awful electoral system.

1. Arguing exceptions does not defeat the fact that it is the general rule
2. Both nations you provided actually undermine your point, as the 3rd parties get more percentage votes than representatives, on average.
3. Both of those nations are parliament systems in which they elect their Prime Ministers not nationally, but legislatively. This matters because of what I said in the GOP going forward thread--3rd parties might be viable regionally, but they simply cannot be on a national scale. The Duverger's law accounts for this, theorizing that in federalist systems like ours, where our high office is nationally elected, the parties have to merge on a national scale to keep competitive for the presidency.

I am well aware of Duverger's Law; I've cited it many times here. And it's true that the New Democrats and Liberal Democrats tend to receive a higher share of votes than seats, while the Bloc Quebecois and Scottish National Party are the reverse, being regional parties.

But those hypothetical third parties would not necessarily have to compete for the Presidency; that same Presidential-Congressional system* the US has would allow them to wield influence if they only managed to elect members of Congress, and likely more than they would in a parliamentary system when another party holds a majority in the legislature.

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Dpareja, I was on another board when I realized that somebody there did what you did here, and it made me realize that you did it. I am kind of confused as to how you can justify being upset in both of these posts. It's contradictory to get upset at Hillary when you believe she's buying superdelegates, but then to get upset again when she isn't giving enough money to superdelegates. I guess what I am trying to say is I'm a bit cynical, and I think that you just want to be mad at Clinton while supporting anything that would help Sanders win (another good example is the March 15th primaries and your response). So I ask, what is the proper balance that Clinton should take in terms of raising money for lower ticket races? 

It is one thing to oppose a candidate, but another thing entirely to oppose anything that candidate does.

It's not Clinton that I'm mad at there per se; it's the system that effectively allows donors to evade contribution limits to her (or anyone's) campaign by funneling money through state parties. She just happens to be taking advantage of it.**

As for the March 15th primaries, as I said then, I first had that thought (and posted it on another forum) at least a week prior, and I should not have posted it here when I did.

*I use this term rather than "federalist" because countries like Canada and Germany are federal, but use a parliamentary system. Even the UK is quasi-federal these days.

**As you noted, much of the money staying with the DNC will go back to the state parties. But what's happening is this: a donor can give, in one year, $2,700 directly to a campaign, and another $30,000+ (I can't recall the precise figure) to a state party. Under the scheme set up with the Victory Fund, since about 25% of the money thus raised is apparently going to Clinton's campaign, that means that donor has effectively given at least $10,000 to Clinton's campaign, almost four times what said donor is supposed to be able to give. The underlying issue is how contribution limits are thus being evaded.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2016, 05:56:51 pm by dpareja »
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.