Author Topic: Worst Political Cartoons  (Read 1670766 times)

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Offline R. U. Sirius

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6195 on: January 10, 2016, 08:48:07 pm »


My response to people who bitch about PC.

There's a big ol' fallacy. The old "this problem doesn't matter because that problem is worse" nonsense. I can't for the life of me remember its Latin title, though.

In my opinion, this particular example is more like "this problem doesn't matter because it's only a problem if you deliberately go out of your way to be an asshole."

I'm not sure what image you're looking at, but the one in this thread quite clearly states that violating social taboos in other places has worse consequences than doing so here, therefore political correctness doesn't matter. Either I missed something huge, or it says nothing whatsoever about people going out of their way to be assholes.

"Political correctness" = people actually getting called out for saying insulting and demeaning things about groups of people, particularly based on things they can't control such as gender, sexual orientation or country of birth. Hence, if you don't act like an asshole, you don't have any problems with PC.
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Offline ironbite

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6196 on: January 10, 2016, 09:01:18 pm »


ITT: UP gets offended by good points.

You know 61% of ethnic minorities think political correctness is a problem, right?  At least, according to a survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

I'm really not sure what that is meant to prove. Also I'm sorry about this but given your track record could you please provide a link to the survey?

Here you go:

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2015/151030/

Is 1,026 people a big enough sample size?

More importantly it has nothing to do with Ethnic Minorities, they are simply random US citizens. The 61% was of the entire poll response, not ethnic minorities. However even if that were correct, I am still at a loss as to what the point is?

.............oh my god.  Just wow are you a bad debator.

Offline Sigmaleph

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6197 on: January 10, 2016, 09:02:55 pm »
No. It's not even a promille of the American population.

Sorry, statistics pet peeve here, that's not how sample size works. The size of your sample proportional to the population you drew the sample from (in this case, the population of America) is meaningless*. The absolute size of the sample is all that matters. 1,026 would be just as useful a number if the population of America was a million or a billion (or infinite).

If you only accept studies with a sample size of one-thousandth of the population of America you're going to be rejecting the vast majority of them.


*well, meaningless given the approximations implicit in modelling things by normal distributions and so on. If your population was 1,027, that tells you something more, but then you'd be using an entirely different set of mathematical methods.
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Offline Ultimate Paragon

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6198 on: January 10, 2016, 09:09:40 pm »
Well, the article that linked to it gave these figures:

Quote
Seventy-two percent of whites and 61 percent of nonwhites (mostly African-American and Hispanic) describe political correctness as a big problem.

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6199 on: January 10, 2016, 09:42:58 pm »
No. It's not even a promille of the American population.

Sorry, statistics pet peeve here, that's not how sample size works. The size of your sample proportional to the population you drew the sample from (in this case, the population of America) is meaningless*. The absolute size of the sample is all that matters. 1,026 would be just as useful a number if the population of America was a million or a billion (or infinite).

If you only accept studies with a sample size of one-thousandth of the population of America you're going to be rejecting the vast majority of them.


*well, meaningless given the approximations implicit in modelling things by normal distributions and so on. If your population was 1,027, that tells you something more, but then you'd be using an entirely different set of mathematical methods.

To me, that would only make sense if the small group's demographic had relevance to the study. Like, if a drug company asked 1000 users of its medicine if there are side effects and over half reported positive, then in that situation the small sample size wouldn't matter. But asking 1000 random yobbos in a nation of several hundred million about whether political correctness is an issue and then claiming that the entire nation has spoken on the issue... that's a hard buy.

Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6200 on: January 10, 2016, 09:47:12 pm »
No. It's not even a promille of the American population.

Sorry, statistics pet peeve here, that's not how sample size works. The size of your sample proportional to the population you drew the sample from (in this case, the population of America) is meaningless*. The absolute size of the sample is all that matters. 1,026 would be just as useful a number if the population of America was a million or a billion (or infinite).

If you only accept studies with a sample size of one-thousandth of the population of America you're going to be rejecting the vast majority of them.


*well, meaningless given the approximations implicit in modelling things by normal distributions and so on. If your population was 1,027, that tells you something more, but then you'd be using an entirely different set of mathematical methods.

To me, that would only make sense if the small group's demographic had relevance to the study. Like, if a drug company asked 1000 users of its medicine if there are side effects and over half reported positive, then in that situation the small sample size wouldn't matter. But asking 1000 random yobbos in a nation of several hundred million about whether political correctness is an issue and then claiming that the entire nation has spoken on the issue... that's a hard buy.

And yet, as long as the sample is actually random, it works. I believe a sample size of as small as 50 people can actually represent any number just fine, as long as it's randomly chosen.
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Offline davedan

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6201 on: January 10, 2016, 10:05:09 pm »
Well, the article that linked to it gave these figures:

Quote
Seventy-two percent of whites and 61 percent of nonwhites (mostly African-American and Hispanic) describe political correctness as a big problem.

Ok so now you want me to read each of the links in the links that you post. And again what is the importance of that?

Offline RavynousHunter

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6202 on: January 10, 2016, 10:16:43 pm »
No. It's not even a promille of the American population.

Sorry, statistics pet peeve here, that's not how sample size works. The size of your sample proportional to the population you drew the sample from (in this case, the population of America) is meaningless*. The absolute size of the sample is all that matters. 1,026 would be just as useful a number if the population of America was a million or a billion (or infinite).

If you only accept studies with a sample size of one-thousandth of the population of America you're going to be rejecting the vast majority of them.


*well, meaningless given the approximations implicit in modelling things by normal distributions and so on. If your population was 1,027, that tells you something more, but then you'd be using an entirely different set of mathematical methods.

To me, that would only make sense if the small group's demographic had relevance to the study. Like, if a drug company asked 1000 users of its medicine if there are side effects and over half reported positive, then in that situation the small sample size wouldn't matter. But asking 1000 random yobbos in a nation of several hundred million about whether political correctness is an issue and then claiming that the entire nation has spoken on the issue... that's a hard buy.

And yet, as long as the sample is actually random, it works. I believe a sample size of as small as 50 people can actually represent any number just fine, as long as it's randomly chosen.

The larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error.  I don't remember the exact equation (I think its ME = 1/sqrt(sample)), but I do recall that it doesn't care one iota about the size of the population being sampled.
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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6203 on: January 10, 2016, 10:44:18 pm »
"Political correctness" = people actually getting called out for saying insulting and demeaning things about groups of people, particularly based on things they can't control such as gender, sexual orientation or country of birth. Hence, if you don't act like an asshole, you don't have any problems with PC.
Those are solely your own thoughts. The image says absolutely nothing of the sort.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2016, 10:49:41 pm by Art Vandelay »

Offline Sigmaleph

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6204 on: January 10, 2016, 10:48:42 pm »
No. It's not even a promille of the American population.

Sorry, statistics pet peeve here, that's not how sample size works. The size of your sample proportional to the population you drew the sample from (in this case, the population of America) is meaningless*. The absolute size of the sample is all that matters. 1,026 would be just as useful a number if the population of America was a million or a billion (or infinite).

If you only accept studies with a sample size of one-thousandth of the population of America you're going to be rejecting the vast majority of them.


*well, meaningless given the approximations implicit in modelling things by normal distributions and so on. If your population was 1,027, that tells you something more, but then you'd be using an entirely different set of mathematical methods.

To me, that would only make sense if the small group's demographic had relevance to the study. Like, if a drug company asked 1000 users of its medicine if there are side effects and over half reported positive, then in that situation the small sample size wouldn't matter. But asking 1000 random yobbos in a nation of several hundred million about whether political correctness is an issue and then claiming that the entire nation has spoken on the issue... that's a hard buy.

It's still true, though (not that 'the entire nation has spoken', exactly, but that you can get reliable information about the entire nation, if your sampling was truly random). So I'm gonna talk about statistics for a bit here to try to explain and if you're still not convinced we can take this to a different thread.

Imagine you have a coin. To make things interesting, this is not a fair coin which comes heads 50% of the time, it's biased and you have no idea how much. You flip it, and with some probability p you don't know the coin comes up heads (and tails with probability 1-p). You want to find p experimentally, so what you do is you start flipping the coin, and recording the results, and you approximate p by (number of heads)/(number of coin flips).

But that's an approximation of p. What's the true value? Well, by the frequentist definition of probability, the proportion of heads in your sample if you took the infinite limit. You can't flip a coin infinitely many times, though. If you had flipped the coin 1000 times and obtained 729 heads, how confident would you be that p is close to 73%? (Real question, not rhetorical. Would appreciate it if you thought about it before reading the next part)

Ok, so now instead of a coin what you have is a yes/no question you want to ask people. What you want to know is the probability that a randomly selected person would say 'yes' to your question, or in other words the proportion of the population that believes the answer is 'yes'. So what you do is try to pick people, as randomly as possible, ask them the question and record the results. And again you approximate the value you want to know by the proportion of your sample that said 'yes'.

Do you see how this case is analogous to the coin case above? The procedure to obtain your approximate value is the same. The only difference is, if you're asking people questions then you have a maximum number of samples you can take (the size of the population), but you do not have a maximum number of coin flips you can make (in an imaginary scenario where we assume the coin doesn't degrade over time, etc). Effectively, the analogous number for population size in the coin flip scenario is infinity (which is not a number, I know, perfect rigour is for mathematicians and neither of us is one).

If you commit to saying you cannot trust a sample size because it's too small as a fraction of the population, this has the implication that, no matter how many times you flipped a coin, you would never have any confidence if it was a fair coin or a p=73% coin or whatever. Because in principle you can always flip it more times, as a fraction of the population any sample size is infinitesimal. You can't get a thousandth part, or a millionth part, or a billionth part. In effect, you are saying that no matter how many times you flip a coin and how carefully you record the results, you will have no confidence on your estimate of the probability.

If you sit down and figure out the model and do the math, it turns out that the error introduced by sampling an incomplete part of the population is proportional to one over the square root of the sample size, and population size never enters the equation at all. This is not obvious and you'd probably need a stats class to get an intuitive understanding of it. But I hope the coin example can at least get across why it can't depend on (sample size)/(population size).

If not, I'm happy to start a new thread on this and see if I can convince you.
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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6205 on: January 10, 2016, 11:56:31 pm »
I'll be honest, some of that flew straight over my head. Like you said, I'd need to have studied the field. I don't have the framework that you do, and pursuing this further would make me feel hopelessly out of my depth. I don't like feeling stupid, so maybe it's best that we end this here. I hope you understand.

Final statement on my part: I concede that taking 1 000 people at random would be a relatively more accurate method of gauging trends within a 300 000 000+ population than selecting 1 000 people based on some unifying factor. However, despite the possible ignorance of the position, I still maintain that measuring the will of a 300 000 000+ population by the demographics of a survey of 1 000 is wildly inaccurate. Also, flipping the same coin N times isn't really analogous to peering into the opinions of several individual people because the object being measured is fundamentally different.

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6206 on: January 11, 2016, 12:20:15 am »
I'll be honest, some of that flew straight over my head. Like you said, I'd need to have studied the field. I don't have the framework that you do, and pursuing this further would make me feel hopelessly out of my depth. I don't like feeling stupid, so maybe it's best that we end this here. I hope you understand.

Final statement on my part: I concede that taking 1 000 people at random would be a relatively more accurate method of gauging trends within a 300 000 000+ population than selecting 1 000 people based on some unifying factor. However, despite the possible ignorance of the position, I still maintain that measuring the will of a 300 000 000+ population by the demographics of a survey of 1 000 is wildly inaccurate. Also, flipping the same coin N times isn't really analogous to peering into the opinions of several individual people because the object being measured is fundamentally different.

You just conceded that Sigma knew statistics better than you do, and then turned around and declared that she is still wrong. Wow.

(p.s. Not a statistics person specifically, but I have taken a statistics class a year ago at university. Suffice to say Sigma speaks the truth.)

Offline Ironchew

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6207 on: January 11, 2016, 12:32:08 am »
I'll be honest, some of that flew straight over my head. Like you said, I'd need to have studied the field. I don't have the framework that you do, and pursuing this further would make me feel hopelessly out of my depth. I don't like feeling stupid, so maybe it's best that we end this here. I hope you understand.

Final statement on my part: I concede that taking 1 000 people at random would be a relatively more accurate method of gauging trends within a 300 000 000+ population than selecting 1 000 people based on some unifying factor. However, despite the possible ignorance of the position, I still maintain that measuring the will of a 300 000 000+ population by the demographics of a survey of 1 000 is wildly inaccurate. Also, flipping the same coin N times isn't really analogous to peering into the opinions of several individual people because the object being measured is fundamentally different.

Sounds like someone wants a math thread.
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Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6208 on: January 11, 2016, 12:33:40 am »
Math thread! Math thread!
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Re: Worst Political Cartoons
« Reply #6209 on: January 11, 2016, 12:49:28 am »
No, I conceded that Sigma has studied the field more and that my stance is probably ignorant, but that I still can't help but have the opinion that I have eve though it's probably full of shit. I never said Sigma's wrong. And I came across like that without meaning to and I'll just fuck off now.