Nuclear Test Un, Two, Three

[Lt. Fred]

Why would North Korea use a nuke in aggression? Clearly this weapon is designed for self-defence.

[RavynousHunter]

And Kim Jong Un is just a poor, misunderstood boy trying to fill his father's shoes!

[Lt. Fred]

I'd do the same thing in his shoes.

[RavynousHunter]

Besides, its his country!  Who are we to suppose our Western morality is in any way superior to theirs?

(The above is so laced with sarcasm, it should not be read by anyone under the age of 18, for the potential of sarcasm toxification.)

[davedan]

I'd do the same thing in his shoes.

Assuming Kim Jong Un is actually in control and does not simply cut ribbons at events organised by the country's military leaders, I would be spending the money on food and agriculture for my nation.

[chitoryu12]

And Kim Jong Un is just a poor, misunderstood boy trying to fill his father's shoes!

Nobody has feet that small.

[Jack Mann]

North Korea has been useful to China.  They were like a leashed dog.  "Gosh, it's a pity about all those trade sanctions you want to put on us.  On a completely unrelated note, our buddy North Korea wants to build some nukes.  We could probably get them to stop, but..."  It's worked for them in the past.  Unfortunately, North Korea has just shown that they won't listen to China anymore.

This presents a problem for China.  They don't want to let the US in, because then they'd have even more US influence in the region.  They don't want North Korea to actually go to war, because that would ruffle all sorts of diplomatic feathers on all sides, and disrupt trade.  And they don't want to invade North Korea for themselves, because it's going to be goddamned expensive to fix up that mess.

It'll be interesting to see what China ultimately does.  They pretty much hold the fate of North Korea in their hands now.

I think in the event of outright war between NATO (read: everyone else) and North Korea, China would either stay neutral (or give minimal secret assistance to NK) or outright work with everyone else. It would be extremely bad for their continued existence to support North Korea if they attacked anyone, especially the United States, and they know that. North Korea is one of those countries that literally everyone, even minor South American states, really wouldn't mind seeing go away. If China supports the country that's basically Blofeld made into a country, it would be tantamount to getting the entire world against them. And they can't afford that.

Neither can the rest of the planet, really; everyone is co-dependent in their relationships with China. But if a nuke gets launched or South Korea gets invaded, it's going to be a no-holds-barred beatdown and China WILL get caught in the crossfire if they try to support the bad guys.

Oh, I agree.  If North Korea starts shit, China will absolutely let them twist in the wind.  It's just that none of their options right now are particularly good.

China could simply march in and take over.  In some ways, this is the simplest solution.  But like I said, that's going to be expensive, not to mention dealing with the brainwashed populace hiding in a stupidly vast series of bunkers and shelters.  It also looks bad to some of China's other allies.  Sure, it's justified, but it still makes them kind of nervous.

They could step aside and let South Korea, the US, and various allies handle it.  But that would likely lead to a unified Korea.  They don't want that, unless it was the North in control.  That gives us more power in the region.  And again, it makes it look like they don't care for their allies.

Now, they could wait to see if North Korea is going to back down or initiate hostilities.  This avoids the issue of alarming their other allies.  However, it doesn't look like Kim Jong-un has any intention of backing down, and actually letting the North Koreans try their hands at nuclear hot potato has all sorts of ways it could fuck things up for the Chinese.  And it goes back to the initial choice: Do they rebuild North Korea, or do we?

So yeah, China's probably giving a good long think to how they want to handle this.  And ultimately, I think it's going to be their decision.  We're unlikely to move in until North Korea actually does something stupid if China doesn't give us at least tacit approval, because nobody really wants a Sino-American War going on.  It's going to be interesting how it all plays out.

[Stormwarden]

I've said this in previous threads regarding NK, but I think it bears repeating. Anyone who's played Ace Combats 5 or Zero will understand what I'm talking about.

I see North Korea using the Belka strategy. I wouldn't put it past North Korea to detonate nukes on their own soil, to cut off any would-be invading force from invading from the South. They wouldn't even need a delivery system from the air to do it. I remember being in high school when McVeigh bombed Oklahoma City's federal building.

After playing AC Zero, I imagined what might have happened if that truck bomb had a nuclear payload. Now imagine a number of those detonating at or near the border. If you're in the high command, you won't be sending infantry through an irradiated area. Of course, airpower can circumvent it, and there are other attack methods from the sea. But I doubt anyone is eager to attempt an amphibious or airborne invasion into NK.

It sounds crazy, but just remember the sort of crazy we're dealing with in the leadership.

[Lt. Fred]

I'd do the same thing in his shoes.

Assuming Kim Jong Un is actually in control and does not simply cut ribbons at events organised by the country's military leaders, I would be spending the money on food and agriculture for my nation.

Iron law of bureaucracy: given a choice between maximising their power within an institution or the power of that institution, everyone with choose the former. Rulers are always going to be more frightened of invasion than starvation.

[chitoryu12]

I've said this in previous threads regarding NK, but I think it bears repeating. Anyone who's played Ace Combats 5 or Zero will understand what I'm talking about.

I see North Korea using the Belka strategy. I wouldn't put it past North Korea to detonate nukes on their own soil, to cut off any would-be invading force from invading from the South. They wouldn't even need a delivery system from the air to do it. I remember being in high school when McVeigh bombed Oklahoma City's federal building.

After playing AC Zero, I imagined what might have happened if that truck bomb had a nuclear payload. Now imagine a number of those detonating at or near the border. If you're in the high command, you won't be sending infantry through an irradiated area. Of course, airpower can circumvent it, and there are other attack methods from the sea. But I doubt anyone is eager to attempt an amphibious or airborne invasion into NK.

It sounds crazy, but just remember the sort of crazy we're dealing with in the leadership.

I think I'd rather see them do that. It's like a guy challenging you to a bar fight, then shooting himself in the groin because he knows that you won't try to attack a guy who's screaming and bleeding from his exploded testicles on the ground.

[davedan]

I'd do the same thing in his shoes.

Assuming Kim Jong Un is actually in control and does not simply cut ribbons at events organised by the country's military leaders, I would be spending the money on food and agriculture for my nation.

Iron law of bureaucracy: given a choice between maximising their power within an institution or the power of that institution, everyone with choose the former. Rulers are always going to be more frightened of invasion than starvation.

Although they know that it is not the nuclear deterrant which is preventing their invasion. If it was they would have been invaded before they started nuclear tests. Starvation is as much a threat to his power as invasion. A bigger threat I think.

[chitoryu12]

I'd do the same thing in his shoes.

Assuming Kim Jong Un is actually in control and does not simply cut ribbons at events organised by the country's military leaders, I would be spending the money on food and agriculture for my nation.

Iron law of bureaucracy: given a choice between maximising their power within an institution or the power of that institution, everyone with choose the former. Rulers are always going to be more frightened of invasion than starvation.

Although they know that it is not the nuclear deterrant which is preventing their invasion. If it was they would have been invaded before they started nuclear tests. Starvation is as much a threat to his power as invasion. A bigger threat I think.

Ironically, the "nuclear deterrent" is pretty much what would lead to an invasion in the first place. There would be no advantage to gain from invading or bombing North Korea nowadays, especially since it would put you on China's bad side and be horribly costly. The only thing that would inspire an attack on North Korea would be them launching their nukes, or at least trying to really attack South Korea or Japan instead of just saber rattling and occasional "artillery tests" that happen to land on other countries.

By blatantly testing their nuclear "might", the North Koreans have done nothing but make everyone much more willing to blow them to smithereens if they put even a toe out of line. They'd be lucky to just be invaded and annexed by South Korea; if they make the mistake of any kind of nuclear strike, the gloves are off. They'll be turned into a stain on Google Earth.

[ThunderWulf]

Even Iran is telling North Korea to settle down.  Yikes.

[chitoryu12]

Even Iran is telling North Korea to settle down.  Yikes.

You know you've fucked up when the North Korea of the Middle East is telling you "Dude, calm down. You're getting crazy."

[Stormwarden]

chitoryu: I wouldn't, because radiation spreads, and South Korea and the surrounding area will be hit as collateral damage. And radiation takes roughly forever to clear up once it's unleashed.