Author Topic: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.  (Read 5246 times)

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Offline rageaholic

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Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« on: April 09, 2012, 11:26:24 am »
I think we're all familiar with Pascal's famous wager.  Believe in God = either heaven or non existance.  Non believe = either hell or non existance.  Therefore belief is better since non existance is the best the non believer has to hope for.  Of course this ignores several other religions which all claim similar things and we're not even going into possibilities outside of religion (ghosts).  Personally, I always saw it as how much you want to invest in potential afterlife.  You can wager a few hours of going to mass and helping at soup kitchens or you can try to become the next Jesus Christ and basically bet your whole life on an afterlife.  Nice idea in theory but it still has flaws.

1.  It ignores the one life we know for the focus of an unknown.
2.  It implies that it would be better to never have been born, making life into more of a curse.

I think the second one really shows in this article written by  Christian none the less.  Fair warning, the article is long, depressing, and is not something you want to read before you go to bed.

Basically, the author saw one of those "anyone can die" movies and realized that according to his beliefs, everyone went to hell. 

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The ad goes on to say "Grab all the gusto you can." And frankly, if there is no God, if there are no consequences to the choices we make in this life, then this is good council. "Eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die...." And I understand entirely any non-Christian who would live this way. I'd live that way too. Why not? If there's no God, no transcendent values, why live as if there were? Why should I? Party hearty.

Of course the bad news is that people who live this way hope this is true, they don't know this is true. And it's not true. These are people who think they're safe, who think there are no eternal consequences to their decisions--and even if there were they think they'll end up on God's good side. You know people like this who don't give much thought to it, who think that it's all just a big party anyway, there's nothing beyond the grave. They hope that this is the case and, even if there is a God out there kind of making a list and checking it twice, well, we're basically good people, aren't we? We'll end up on God's good side because, in fact, some are people who, in Paul's words, have "a zeal for God, but not in accordance with knowledge" (Rom 10:2).

All of these people, rudely interrupted by death, will find themselves caught by surprise, consciously aware after death that their fate is forever cast in iron. They were wrong and now they're lost.

So god's the boogieman?  I mean, who would want such a being to exist if all it means is that he's going to condemn people to an and I must scream type of fate for enjoying the life he gave them?  What an asshole.

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Now, consider for a moment the thought that someone you're endeared to, someone who has admirable qualities and in the great scheme of things seems rather harmless, consider the thought that they are going to hell. You're forced to say that for what are theologically sound reasons, that this unbeliever who you've become attached to, who you "love" will undergo the greatest torment conceivable for a duration of time that is not conceivable: eternity. Let's be honest. That bothers you somehow. It bothers me.
 

Ladies and gentlemen, our god of love! 

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Which brings us to my greatest fear. My greatest fear is that I will be among that number. Just as millions of others who thought they were safe will be caught by surprise, just as Captain Augustus MacRae would be caught by surprise, so might I.

"But you're a Christian!" Sure, but that doesn't always rescue me from the terrible thought that I could be right about God's judgment, but wrong about His mercy.

I admire his honesty.  I don't know how anyone with such depressing beliefs can not have doubts and think "oh crap, what if I'm damned anyway?". 

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This is why I'm so adamant about the notion that there is no neutral ground. There is no fence for you to sit on. There is no "undecided" or "none of the above" categories. You've got to place your bet. Everyone antes up. Everyone's in the game. And at any given time your money is either on red or on black. And that, by the way, is what faith is: it's placing your bet; it's putting it all on the line for what you believe is true--not what I wish is true, not what I'd like to be true, not what I'm trying to conjure up or squeeze out a lot of religious feeling to support, but what I believe to be what the preponderance of evidence points to. That's faith. Placing my bet.

2 things.

1.  One is extremely dickish of God to force us into a game where we have to bet the one life we have on faulty information simply to escape eternal torment.  God created us, you'd think he'd be more understanding.   

2.  The "preponderance of evidence" doesn't point to the existance of any god.  Sure, we have theories, but that's what they are, theories.  Theories which assume the unknown but do not necessarly prove it. 

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Now the problem with my gambling metaphor is that it may give the mistaken idea that faith is just a roll of the dice. I don't believe that. It's not pure chance and it's not a leap of faith, but it is a risk--I can't pretend otherwise--you could lose everything. It's the most terrible thing anyone could ever fear, to fall into the hands of an angry God.

Wow, an all powerful being is going to be raging pissed because a not so powerful human picked the wrong religion?  Since God is all powerful yet fails to give any acknowlagement of his existance, he's basically getting pissed because we pick the wrong number out of a hat.  God is sounding more and more like an abusive parent here...

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But, what if I am mistaken about God's mercy? Well, I really don't know what other view would work, frankly. Or maybe I should say, I really don't know what other view wouldn't work. It seems that with just about any other alternative view at death I'm either wiped from existence--annihilated--or whisked into heaven. If the atheists or the Arians--like Jehovah's Witnesses--are right I just get blasted into nothingness--no pain, no problem. It's over. If human assessment of righteousness is what matters, well, I've led a pretty righteous life. If it was a matter of relative goodness, and that's the perspective of most other religions in the world, or the Arains on the other side, it seems like I'm covered. That was Paschal's point in his famous wager--if you're a good Christian and you're wrong, you've really lost nothing; if you're right you've gained everything. If you're an atheist, however, and you're right, you've gained nothing, but if you're wrong you've lost everything. The Christian, it seems to me, has everything to gain and nothing to lose.

And this shows the problem with this kind of thinking.  You're living the one life you know you have for an afterlife you don't know you have.  Or in this case, you're trying to cover all your bases to make sure you don't get a fate worse than death.  Instead of living and enjoying life, you're fearing it, almost wanting it to end.  It's extremely depressing and almost nihilistic, something that several years ago, I would have never suspected I hear from a Christian. 

Personally, I'd rather just enjoy my life instead of worrying about what any God's gonna do to me. 

Offline Atheissimo

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2012, 03:30:45 pm »
Yeah, good review.

Nothing in here that I haven't seen a thousand times before re: Pascal's Wager

1) Does he or anybody else here know anybody that genuinely says 'well I don't believe in God so I can do anything I like'? There's a certain degree of morality in all of us except the mentally disturbed.

2) He acknowledges that there are people who are 'good' by the Christian standards of goodness without faith who probably don't deserve Hell, but doesn't think that it is therefore vile of God to torture them.

God's a sadistic bastard, but he's MY sadistic bastard!

3) He acknowledges it's just one giant guessing game, but doesn't think that God in his infinite wisdom and mercy would take pity on us poor clueless mortals. There are humans with more heart than that.

4) Aaaand finally makes the biggest mistake when using the wager: making it Christianity vs. Atheism by dismissing the thousands of other faiths with a wave of the hand

How have you determined that Christianity is the best religion? How do you know that the God you believe in is really the Christian God and not Vishnu? He's taking just as big a risk by not believing in any God but one.

By his logic, you shouldn't believe in your pet religion but the one with the worst hell so that you can avoid it.
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Offline Old Viking

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2012, 04:08:35 pm »
Good observations.

I like it when their eyes light up, like their springing something brand new on you.
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Offline rageaholic

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2012, 04:53:51 pm »
Yeah, good review.

Nothing in here that I haven't seen a thousand times before re: Pascal's Wager

1) Does he or anybody else here know anybody that genuinely says 'well I don't believe in God so I can do anything I like'? There's a certain degree of morality in all of us except the mentally disturbed.

I think it's more along the lines of "I don't believe in God so I don't have to stress about being super holy".  If you're super religious, you're constantly fretting about little sins that might send you to hell.  Fundies like Ray Comfort love to use the 10 commandment test, making people realize that they broke all of them (even in thought), thus the need for forgiveness and redemption (Jesus).  Of course by their interpretation, no one can live up to the standard.  That proves to them that the Bible is right and that the only way to avoid judgement to accept Christ.

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2) He acknowledges that there are people who are 'good' by the Christian standards of goodness without faith who probably don't deserve Hell, but doesn't think that it is therefore vile of God to torture them.

God's a sadistic bastard, but he's MY sadistic bastard!

I recall there being a line about a "sense of injustice", but he also says something about us not understanding the "gravity of our sin in the presense of God".  Honestly, that just sounds like standard apologetics nonsense.  It's like trying to understand why a terrorist or serial killer hates his fellow man. 

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3) He acknowledges it's just one giant guessing game, but doesn't think that God in his infinite wisdom and mercy would take pity on us poor clueless mortals. There are humans with more heart than that.

I think this guy is a Calvinist.  They believe in total deprevity, that everyon is evil at heart and that God is gracious in sparing anyone from his wrath.  To them it's like a judge deciding to let a few convicted criminals go free.  The ones who go free owe the judge their thanks, but the ones who stay in prison have no right to complain.  So even if he does his best to be a Christian, he still believes he deserves hell for his past sins, and therefore the fear is that he might get his "just deserts".

Of course this also raises the question of why God wouldn't just wipe us out and start fresh.  If God has such a problem with us humans that he created, if we can't help but sin and piss him off, than why keep us around?  It's a question you have to ask to maintain your sanity when faced with such a vile and depressing theology. 

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4) Aaaand finally makes the biggest mistake when using the wager: making it Christianity vs. Atheism by dismissing the thousands of other faiths with a wave of the hand

Yup, for all he knows Judism or Islam could be right and he could end up in their version of hell.  That's why I say you might as well just enjoy the one life you know you have.  It makes a lot more sense than to fret about a God who can't even communicate with his creation. 

Offline Neith

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2012, 05:09:28 pm »
I feel sorry for the man who wrote that article. In playing Pascal's Wager, he has already lost. Instead of enjoying the one life we know he has, he lives with the nightmare of believing most people will be tortured for all eternity, and worrying that he might be going there, too.

It must be hard to go through life believing that, and then try to reconcile this with his belief that God isn't the most sadistic asshole anyone could imagine. Poor Gregory is already in Hell, and the only way out is to listen to his doubts instead of suppressing all reason.

Offline Osama bin Bambi

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2012, 09:39:17 pm »
I agree with Normal Bob Smith when he says that anyone who believes that they can be happy in Heaven while their closest friends and relatives burn in Hell for all eternity is a psychopath, pure and simple.
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Offline rageaholic

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2012, 10:45:06 pm »
Neith, you're correct.  I heard an expression that it's hell to believe in hell.  Unless you can flanderize it to make it look like one big party downtown (like I did when I was a kid), thinking about it will drive you to madness.  I don't know how any compassionate person can believe in a literal burning hell without needing to a mental institution.

I always believed that hell was one of the more under estimated destructive forces of religion.  What it can do to a persons mind is horrific.  And if there does exist a God who would create such a horrible place, he is nothing more than a complete monster impossible to sincerely worship.  And to think they say we deserve this merely for fucking thought crimes.   :'(

Offline StallChaser

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2012, 04:47:04 am »
If anyone brings up Pascal's Wager, I tell them it's really simple.  If you accept my coffee mug as God and are wrong, you lose nothing.  But if don't, and you're wrong, you lose everything!

Offline Tolpuddle Martyr

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2012, 08:28:45 am »
If anyone brings up Pascal's Wager, I tell them it's really simple.  If you accept my coffee mug as God and are wrong, you lose nothing.  But if don't, and you're wrong, you lose everything!

So, no coffee then?

Offline rookie

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2012, 09:02:51 am »
If anyone brings up Pascal's Wager, I tell them it's really simple.  If you accept my coffee mug as God and are wrong, you lose nothing.  But if don't, and you're wrong, you lose everything!

Effing perfect one line retort, StallChaser! I am totally stealing that IRL. I have been going through as much of the Big Old List o' Deities, saying "What about Allah? Odin? Zeus? Ba'al?"
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Offline TenfoldMaquette

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2012, 09:21:05 am »
Effing perfect one line retort, StallChaser! I am totally stealing that IRL. I have been going through as much of the Big Old List o' Deities, saying "What about Allah? Odin? Zeus? Ba'al?"

I know from personal experience that a google-search for "major religions on earth" results in a list that stretches for 12 pages of 10-pt type. That's always fun to slap down in front of someone when they bring out Pascal's wager, as it very handily illustrates the rather long odds of picking the "right" religion.

Offline Sylvana

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2012, 09:43:30 am »
Effing perfect one line retort, StallChaser! I am totally stealing that IRL. I have been going through as much of the Big Old List o' Deities, saying "What about Allah? Odin? Zeus? Ba'al?"

I know from personal experience that a google-search for "major religions on earth" results in a list that stretches for 12 pages of 10-pt type. That's always fun to slap down in front of someone when they bring out Pascal's wager, as it very handily illustrates the rather long odds of picking the "right" religion.

Not to mention that the "right" religion might not even be one that the world knows about. Perhaps God created the universe for the people of planet zarg and if we don't believe in their god we will suffer eternally. The sheer list of current, previous and possible religions is infinite. It takes gambling to a whole new level of risk where there is no upper limit on the roulette wheel and you can only pick a number.

One point though, I think Christians use Pascal's Wager against atheism because of their world view. To them there is their religion, and everyone else. It does not matter that there are other religions to them they only see people who do not believe in their specific god and are thus all atheists. It is still a false dichotomy but is evident in the fact that their disdain for Muslims and atheists is the same. For them both are actively denying believing in their god and are specifically being tricked by their holy super villain. It is a two tone worldview that allows Pascal's Wager to make perfect sense to them.

Offline MadCatTLX

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2012, 06:54:36 pm »
Effing perfect one line retort, StallChaser! I am totally stealing that IRL. I have been going through as much of the Big Old List o' Deities, saying "What about Allah? Odin? Zeus? Ba'al?"

I know from personal experience that a google-search for "major religions on earth" results in a list that stretches for 12 pages of 10-pt type. That's always fun to slap down in front of someone when they bring out Pascal's wager, as it very handily illustrates the rather long odds of picking the "right" religion.

Not to mention that the "right" religion might not even be one that the world knows about. Perhaps God created the universe for the people of planet zarg and if we don't believe in their god we will suffer eternally. The sheer list of current, previous and possible religions is infinite. It takes gambling to a whole new level of risk where there is no upper limit on the roulette wheel and you can only pick a number.

One point though, I think Christians use Pascal's Wager against atheism because of their world view. To them there is their religion, and everyone else. It does not matter that there are other religions to them they only see people who do not believe in their specific god and are thus all atheists. It is still a false dichotomy but is evident in the fact that their disdain for Muslims and atheists is the same. For them both are actively denying believing in their god and are specifically being tricked by their holy super villain. It is a two tone worldview that allows Pascal's Wager to make perfect sense to them.

Why is it that Christians forget, don't know or outright deny that they share the same god with Judaism and Islam?
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Offline Osama bin Bambi

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2012, 07:03:17 pm »
Effing perfect one line retort, StallChaser! I am totally stealing that IRL. I have been going through as much of the Big Old List o' Deities, saying "What about Allah? Odin? Zeus? Ba'al?"

I know from personal experience that a google-search for "major religions on earth" results in a list that stretches for 12 pages of 10-pt type. That's always fun to slap down in front of someone when they bring out Pascal's wager, as it very handily illustrates the rather long odds of picking the "right" religion.

Not to mention that the "right" religion might not even be one that the world knows about. Perhaps God created the universe for the people of planet zarg and if we don't believe in their god we will suffer eternally. The sheer list of current, previous and possible religions is infinite. It takes gambling to a whole new level of risk where there is no upper limit on the roulette wheel and you can only pick a number.

One point though, I think Christians use Pascal's Wager against atheism because of their world view. To them there is their religion, and everyone else. It does not matter that there are other religions to them they only see people who do not believe in their specific god and are thus all atheists. It is still a false dichotomy but is evident in the fact that their disdain for Muslims and atheists is the same. For them both are actively denying believing in their god and are specifically being tricked by their holy super villain. It is a two tone worldview that allows Pascal's Wager to make perfect sense to them.

Why is it that Christians forget, don't know or outright deny that they share the same god with Judaism and Islam?

The Christians I've met seem to accept that the gods of Judaism and Christianity are the same, but most don't accept that Allah is the same Abrahamic god. Once some dipshit in my class said that Muslims are dangerous because they "kill for Allah and hate the God of the Bible."  Another girl pointed out that "Allah" literally means God, and that Muslims consider the Christian, Jewish, and Muslim god to be the same deity.
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Offline Cerim Treascair

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Re: Unfortunate Implications of Pascal's Wager.
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2012, 07:09:06 pm »
I'm not exactly scared of Pascal's Wager, myself.  With as many varied beliefs as I hold, I'm either ENTIRELY fucked and there's nothing I can do about it, I get to hang with Anubis, or I end up in the Summer-Lands.  I figure I have 2/3 odds on a decent post-human existence.
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