The immates are running the asylum.
Ironbite-let's see if it keeps them in power.
Well, everything is so gerrymandered in their favor that their 47.6% of the House popular vote in 2012 was good for 53.8% of House seats. 1.5 million more people voted for Democratic House candidates than for Republicans, but the GOP ended with a 234 - 201 majority.
So I'm going to go with they're going to hold the House in 2016 pretty much no matter what they do, and the Democrats have little hope in that chamber until after lines are redrawn after the 2020 census. Of course, the state legislature lines are overwhelmingly gerrymandered in favor of Republicans as well, so it will be difficult to restore balance even then, amd if a Democraric President is elected next year, the Republicans will do well in 2020 (as the opposition paety alwas does in thw midterms) amd theyll be able to redraw the lInes evwn more strongly in theor favor. If there is 1 thing that Republicans are good at, it's rewriting the rules of democracy in their favor, generally in ways that are less democratic (voter id laws, shorter polling hours, fewer polling stations, etc)
Um, 2020 is a presidential election year. 2018 and 2022 are the midterm years.
But yeah, way too many states are gerrymandered all to hell.
Yup... not sure what I was thinking there...
I've been considering different scenarios for 2020 lately based on what happens in 2016, and their implications on reapportionment, and I don't feel that 2020 looks good for the Democrats under most of them for a variety of reasons. I must have twisted that around in my head. Or, based on my spelling, I might actually have been asleep when I typed that message. Who knows.
Nah! 2016 is going to be the Dems' year!
The Democrats definitely have an advantage in the Electoral College, namely, the Democratic nominee can win the presidency with Ohio OR Florida, while a Republican cannot win without both (can I just take a moment to lament the fact that those are pretty much the only states that matter?). Realistically speaking, this means that for the GOP to elect a president, they pretty much have to sweep the swing states, not because the extra electoral votes are necessary, but because one party winning both FL and OH suggests that they probably did well in all of the states that could go either way, and maybe even picked off a state that leans the other direction.
That being said, it's way too early to be that optimistic. History shows that voters like to change the party that controls the country fairly regularly. The last time the Democrats won 3 consecutive presidential elections was 1940, 44, and 48 (FDR and Truman); and the last time that a Democrat served a full 8 years and were succeeded by another Democrat due to election rather than death was Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren (1828, 32, 36). More importantly, even if the Democrats do sweep the swing states, they could still fail to regain control of Congress. The 2016 Senate election will be the echo of 2010, which means that there will be a lot more Republicans facing reelection (24) than Democrats (10). Interestingly, most of the GOP seats are in deep red states, and most Democratic seats are in deep blue states, so there probably won't be a whole lot of movement there, though the specifics of each candidate and situation can change that. Nonetheless, the Democrats have more to gain than to lose, which is good news to those of us on the left.
It's the House that is a problem. It's so badly gerrymandered, that it's almost impossible for Democrats to take it back. For example, looking at the early, early, early polls from 270towin show that Democrats would have to hold all of their seats, win ever toss up, every seat that leans Republican, and win several that are likely Republican.
So it being a Democratic year could mean that a Democrat is elected President, they win the Senate with 51 or 52 seats, and they pick up a dozen House seats, and are still in the minority. The elections are still a long way off, but if your standard for having a good year involves them taking over both chambers, you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment.
